What The Stats Say About Texas A&M Aggies vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What does the analytics say about the Texas A&M Aggies to win in South Bend against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish?

Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko high fives players as they exit the field during the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

For the Texas A&M Aggies, their contest in South Bend could mark a program turning victory, should they defeat the top-10 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but it won't come easy.

Despite the fact that Marcus Freeman's team has yet to win this season, they've only played one game. They had a bye week during the second weekend of the season. That means they got an extra week of prep to prepare for Mike Elko's squad in the Fighting Irish's home opener.

With the expectations weighing in on the Aggies, what do the stats say about their highly anticipated matchup against the Irish?

Limit Explosive Plays

Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) breaks free and runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

In the players to watch article, I detailed their dynamic running back, Jeremiyah Love, and what he is capable of doing to opposing defenses. However, they also have an equally talented running back behind him in Jadarian Prince. The one-two combo gives them one of the most lethal backfields in the country.

For the Aggies, despite their blowout wins in the first two weeks of the season, their opponents have been able to find success against them on the ground. In their 42-24 victory over the UTSA Roadrunners in the first game of the season, they gave up 221 rushing yards, including 177 to Robert Henry, who averaged 11.1 yards per carry.

In week two, they were better, only allowing 127 yards. However, as a team, they rank 80th in the country in opponents' yards per rush with 4.1. They've also allowed 140.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 68th.

Their expected points added on rushing defense is 0.09, which ranks 111 out of 134 teams. In the same breath, though, their overall rushing defense has been successful, ranking 30th with a 31.7 percent success rate. Their biggest problem, reflected by their EPA, has been the struggle to limit explosive gains in their opponents' rushing attacks.

In week one, they gave up six "big" rushing plays, or rushes over 10 yards, including one 75-yard touchdown and two other rushes for 20-plus yards. In week two, they limited Utah State to only two, but both went for 15-plus, including a 30-yard rush to start the second half. While the sample size is still small, precedent is there to show the numbers are staggering in a vacuum.

Love, one of the most explosive, downhill runners in college football, was slow to start the season in week one, but he poses a significant threat in the top-25 showdown against the Aggies. Limiting the big plays will be key.

The Aggies will travel to South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish Sept. 13, at 6:30 p.m. CT.