Predicting The College World Series: Who Takes Home The Title?
Wake Forest, LSU, Tennessee, Stanford, Florida, Virginia, TCU, Oral Roberts. Just eight teams remain alive in the NCAA Baseball Championship, each punching a ticket to the College World Series last weekend. Now, the real fun begins. Two of those teams will emerge victorious from their double-elimination bracket and just one will hoist a trophy.
Let's try to puzzle out who might be our champion.
The Men's College World Series begins Friday, June 16 in Omaha, Nebraska. The CWS final begins Saturday, June 24.
Predicting the College World Series: Bracket 1
The more forgiving of the two brackets, Florida, Virginia, TCU, and Oral Roberts square off. TCU and Oral Roberts bring endless momentum to the table, while Florida and Virginia are the superiorly talented teams. But, in the college baseball postseason, talent isn't all.
Game 1: TCU vs. Oral Roberts
Oral Roberts is a great story. Don't call them a Cinderella, though, as the Golden Eagles have 51 wins on the season, second most only to Wake Forest. They recently had a 21-game win streak snapped against Oregon, but immediately picked back up and won two straight.
But when it comes to the projected pitchers, TCU's Kole Klecker has a clear advantage. I don't expect ORU's trend of out-scoring opponents in 15+ combined run games to continue here.
The pick: TCU
Game 2: Florida vs. Virginia
The biggest question surrounding Virginia is their ability to continue their dominance away from home. In Charlottesville this year, the Hoos went 35-5; away from Charlottesville, just 15-8.
However, their pitching staff is superior to Florida's and much deeper. UVA is terrific at punishing pitchers that throw the fastball, essentially taking it out of their repertoire. The Gators are very impressive and beat a gauntlet of a schedule to get here, but Virginia stacks up better in most metrics.
The pick: Virginia
OK – you don't have the time to read through multi-paragraph breakdowns of each game, so let's pick up the pace a little.
Game 5: Florida OVER Oral Roberts – I don't want to discount ORU's run to the CWS, but they upended the easiest Regional and caught a break playing Oregon – a team without a pitcher under a 6.00 ERA – in the Supers.
Oral Roberts eliminated.
Game 6: Virginia OVER TCU – I'll take the depth of UVA' pitching staff over TCU's. That's the Frog's biggest concern.
Game 9: TCU OVER Florida – The Gators make an early exit. TCU plays their best with their back against the wall.
Florida eliminated.
Game 11: Virginia OVER TCU – The Hoos are just too deep and hit the ball too well. TCU's dream turnaround this season ends in the Bracket 1 semifinals.
Virginia advances to College World Series final.
Predicting the College World Series: Bracket 2
This is what I call the "bracket of death." Put any of Wake Forest, LSU, Tennessee, and even Stanford in Bracket 1, and they likely become a second favorite to win the group. Not here. There's an insane amount of talent, particularly on the mound.
Game 3: Wake Forest vs. Stanford
I would sooner rather play an All-Star team comprised of the seven other teams in the CWS than Wake Forest as is today. They have four starters that could be aces on almost any of these teams and Rhett Lowder, who's an automatic win.
Did I mention Lowder likely takes the mound against Stanford?
The pick: Wake Forest
Game 4: LSU vs. Tennessee
What a treat for a first-round game. LSU took two of three from Tennessee earlier this season in Baton Rouge. Ace Paul Skenes also qualifies as an automatic win when on the mound, which he should be for this game. The last team to drop their opening game and win the title was Virginia back in 2015, so winning this game is paramount.
Tennessee brings a lot of gas to the mound, but LSU's power lineup didn't have much trouble with them back in April. Of their nine regular starters, eight of them have 10+ home runs. LSU is almost as star-studded as Wake Forest (more on that later... spoiler).
The pick: LSU
Game 7: Tennessee OVER Stanford – Stanford is a good team with a deep rotation and good power hitting, but they're lucky to even be playing in Omaha. Tennessee rolled their competition to get here.
Stanford eliminated.
Game 8: Wake Forest OVER LSU – The super star starters don't run out after Lowder for Wake Forest. Josh Hartle – whom I project to start this round – has 131 strikeouts in just 86.2 IP and a 2.28 ERA. Even if LSU gets ahold of him, Wake runs deep in their rotation.
Game 10: LSU OVER Tennessee – I like LSU's top-to-bottom talent just a little bit more than Tennessee. The Vols are playing well, but I don't think they have the total complete pitching staff to shut down the Tigers' bats.
Tennessee eliminated.
Game 12: LSU OVER Wake Forest – LSU is talented enough to hang with Wake Forest. The question here is, does LSU trot Skenes out? Wake has less of a chance of burning Lowder again with no losses under their belt. My guess is LSU keeps Skenes on standby in case things go south.
Game 13: LSU OVER Wake Forest – This is where I can only hope we get Skenes vs. Lowder. That would be one of the most incredible pitching matchups in CWS history. It's been a long time since we've seen a huge favorite from the tournament win the CWS. I like LSU's momentum and hitting lineup just *that* much more than Wake's.
Skenes has two losses on the season. In each of those losses, he allowed just two runs. Unfounded losses handed to him, if you ask me. He's the best pitcher in the game. It's a true shame we can't get a three-game series of this in the finals.
LSU advances to the College World Series final.
College World Series Final: LSU OVER Virginia
I fully expect this series to go the distance. Virginia boasts a deeper rotation and better bullpen than LSU, who will be starting either Ty Floyd, Thatcher Hurd, or even Riley Cooper in Game 1. Should they lose Game 1, expect Skenes to come out for Game 2. If it's tied after two games, Skenes comes out in Game 3.
The Tigers were the unanimous preseason favorite for a reason. They had a slight slip at the end of the regular season and in the SEC Championship, but they're back on track. With superstars in Dylan Crews and Tommy White, coupled with the high-end pitching talent, I believe they're the best team in the nation.
LSU wins the College World Series 2-1.
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