TCU vs. Duke Prediction, Odds, Key Player to Watch for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

The Duke Blue Devils suffered a scare against No. 16 Siena in the Round of 64 and were just minutes away from becoming the third No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament history to fall to a No. 16 seed. Thankfully for Blue Devils' fans, they stormed back in the second half and pulled away in the final minutes of the game.

They move on to the Round of 32 to face a feisty TCU Horned Frogs team that's coming off an upset win against Ohio State. Will Duke bounce back and string together a better performance against their opponent from the Big 12? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

TCU vs. Duke Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

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Spread

TCU +10.5 (-102)
Duke -10.5 (-120)

Moneyline

TCU +420
Duke -580

Total

OVER 139.5 (-115)
UNDER 139.5 (-105)

TCU vs. Duke How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 21
Time: 5:15 pm ET
Venue: Bon Secours Wellness Arena
How to Wach (TV): CBS
TCU Record: 23-11
Duke Record: 33-2

TCU vs. Duke Betting Trends

TCU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games
The UNDER is 6-3 in TCU's last nine games
TCU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog
Duke is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
The UNDER is 11-5 in Duke's last 16 games

TCU vs. Duke Key Player to Watch

David Punch, F - TCU Horned Frogs

Obviously, the best player in this game is Cameron Boozer of Duke, but the most key player might be the man who is going to be most responsible for slowing him down, and that's David Punch of TCU. Punch is averaging 2.0 blocks per game, and he was a big piece in the Horned Frogs' win against Ohio State, racking up 13 rebounds and three blocks. If TCU wants a fighting chance to win this game, they need Punch to bring his best stuff.

TCU vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

I'm not going to overreact to the Round of 64 results. TCU played a great game against Ohio State, and Duke had its worst half of the season against Siena. Instead, I'm going to look at the full season of results, and I have some concerns about TCU's offensive ability to hang with Duke.

The Horned Frogs rank just 201st in the country in effective field goal percentage. They were able to overcome that against Ohio State because of how much better defensively they were than the Buckeyes, but the Blue Devils are a top-three defensive team in college basketball, nullifying the advantage TCU would have against some opponents.

I expect a bounce-back game from Duke, resulting in the Blue Devils reminding everyone why they're the favorites to win the National Championship.

Pick: Duke -10.5 (-120)

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