Predicting The Corvallis Regional: Can TCU Come Out On Top?

The Horned Frogs take on Oregon State, USC, and Saint Mary's in the opening round of the NCAA D-I Baseball Tournament – can they secure another Super Regional bid?

Mason Brassfield on the mound in the Big 12 Tournament. / TCU Baseball on X | @TCU_Baseball

A year ago, Kirk Saarloos and the TCU Horned Frogs watched as the final names were called into the NCAA Baseball Tournament. Each invitation given away was a further gut punch than the one previous. Though that TCU team didn't find its way into the postseason, the Horned Frogs rebounded right back to punch a ticket this year, landing in the Corvallis Regional alongside Oregon State, USC, and Saint Mary's (CA).

In their last dance, TCU ran a perfect 5-0 record through the Fayetteville Regional and their own Super Regional. The Frogs made noise in the 2023 College World Series before heading home as one of the final four teams remaining.

Each regional poses its own challenges. Does TCU have what it takes to steal another Super Regional bid? Let's discuss.

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Sizing Up The Corvallis Regional

Oregon State Beavers (41-12-1)

According to an aggregate of three respected ranking systems (Diamond Sports Ranking, RPI, and KSI), host Oregon State ranks as the 14th-best No. 1 seed – notably below their No. 8 national seed ranking. Those metrics do weigh schedule strength quite heavily and now that Oregon State no longer competes in the full-strength Pac-12, their rating takes a hit. The Beavers finished 1-5 against hosting teams (including 0-4 against rival Oregon) and 6-10 overall against teams in the tournament field).

Oregon State's strength comes in its pitching and defense, led by sophomore lefty Ethan Kleinschmit (7-3, 3.84 ERA) and freshman righty Dax Whitney (5-3, 3.86). Those starters have a high floor to fall back on thanks to a deep rotation of relievers, including Eric Segura (8-1, 4.24) and Wyatt Queen (3.38). The Beavs finished seventh in fielding, as well.

The infield brings power at the plate in addition to defensive prowess. Aiva Arquette, a Washington transfer, belted 17 home runs this season and 32 total extra base hits on a team-leading .348 average. Junior first baseman Jacob Krieg makes noise when he connects, batting 12 homers, but also waves at plenty of pitches, hitting just .234 with 69 strikeouts.

Advanced ratings systems DSR and KSI are more bearish on Oregon State, ranking them 20th and 19th, respectively.

While vulnerable, the Beavers did go 17-2 at home this season in Goss Stadium. Their draw as the regional host shouldn't go unmentioned.

USC Trojans (31-24)

USC managed to sneak a tournament bid in as one of the last four teams–controversially–over Virginia and UConn. The Trojans finished 5-6 against "Quad 1" teams, per RPI, and 7-6 against teams in the tournament field. USC notched a 2-1 series win over crosstown rival and regional host UCLA and another individual victory over Vanderbilt early in the year.

The Trojans bring a balanced approach to the field, not ranking better than 43rd in DSR, RPI, or KSI, but not worse than 56th in any metric (including strength of schedule, wRC+, and fielding percent). However, in the postseason, the "jack of all trades, master of none" setup rarely works for advancing out of regionals.

Two-way player Ethan Hedges does bring a dynamicism rare in college baseball. The junior mans the hot corner on defense, bats a career-best .343 with 12 home runs and 27 extra base hits (five triples!), while also serving as closer with a team-best nine saves (2.40 ERA). Likely an All-America candidate, Hedges was named the No. 2 third baseman in the country and a finalist for the John Olerud Two-Way Player of the Year award.

Relief pitching, like with Oregon State, is a strength for this USC team. Sophomore reliever Brodie Purcell owns four saves of his own and a team-best 2.11 ERA (min. 20 IP).

TCU must score runs on USC's starters–a unit that's struggled both with production and consistency–and maintain a lead before its stud relievers take the mound.

Saint Mary's Gaels (35-24)

The West Coast Conference champs leaned on offense to make a run to their first NCAA baseball postseason since 2016 and second ever. Saint Mary's ranks second among tournament No. 4 seeds and 15th among all tournament teams with a 147 wRC+ (weighted runs created). However, the Gaels went 1-6 against tournament teams not named Fresno State this season.

Unlike other No. 4 seeds, Saint Mary's lacks the true national danger to really compete in this tournament, compared to USC Upstate (fourth in wRC+) and Fresno State (27th in fielding/33rd in xFIP). First baseman Eddie Madrigal brings individual pop to the plate with 21 homers and a .372 average.

The pitching rotation struggles and only 10 teams in the tournament field measure worse in xFIP (field-independent pitching). Winning a game in this region would be a true steal for the Gaels.

Corvallis Regional Prediction

Oregon State should be a heavy favorite in its opening game against Saint Mary's. TCU should also be a favorite, when game odds release, albeit significantly less so. Should the Horned Frogs' bats get on USC early and mount a lead on the starters, they should notch an opening game victory.

That slates TCU and Oregon State in a next-round matchup of a double-elimination tournament. The Frogs must upend Oregon State at least once, more likely twice, in a maximum three attempts. Lose that second round game and TCU must take on (likely) USC again.

We can expect Mason Brassfield to be the Game 2 starter after he turned in a decent showing against Kansas in the Big 12 tournament. Caedmon Parker held that role to close the year against Cincinnati and Utah, but struggled at times. The Frogs used a combination of pitchers in a valiant Big 12 Championship effort that resulted in a 2-1 extra-innings loss to Arizona. The depth of the staff becomes paramount in the NCAA Tournament.

Host or not, Oregon State is a vulnerable regional host and TCU was one of the fringe teams controversially not given a host bid. I'm picking TCU to advance to the Super Regionals.

• Corvallis Regional Prediction: TCU wins, Oregon State runner-up

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