Conference Standings and Bracketology Shift After Tough Week For TCU Women's Basketball

A challenging stretch reshaped the Horned Frogs' position in the conference race and altered how bracketologists currently view TCU's postseason outlook.

TCU women's basketball is still in the conference title hunt at 9-3 in Big 12 play. | Brian McLean - On Assignment Photo/KillerFrogs.com for TCU On SI

TCU women’s basketball took a slight dip in both the Big 12 Conference standings and NCAA Tournament projections after a 1-1 week in conference play. The No. 17 Horned Frogs (21-4 overall, 9-3 Big 12) have two games against top-20 teams this week that will continue to shape their postseason fate. 

TCU & The Big 12 Conference Title Race

TCU lost its spot atop the conference standings after the loss at Colorado. No. 12 Baylor is the lone 10-2 team followed by No. 19 West Virginia (10-3 Big 12), No. 16 Texas Tech (9-3) and TCU (9-3). 

Those standings will either get clearer or muddier by the end of this week since TCU plays both Baylor (Feb. 12) and West Virginia (Feb. 15). To put it simply, the Horned Frogs need a 2-0 week to remain in a favorable spot within the conference title race. A loss at Baylor does not eliminate TCU from title contention (especially since those teams face off again in Fort Worth on March 1), but those hopes would take a hit. TCU already beat West Virginia once this season, so it can secure all tiebreakers with a win at home on Sunday. 

If the Horned Frogs beat the Bears on Thursday, there’s potential for a four-way tie atop the conference standings. Remember, though, Texas Tech technically holds a tiebreaker over TCU because of its win in Lubbock earlier this month. 

Keep an eye on Oklahoma State, too, as it is sitting in fifth place with four losses. If enough chaos reigns above the Cowgirls, they could easily slip into the conference title conversation. 

Bracketology: TCU

TCU moved down one seed line in ESPN’s latest NCAA Tournament bracketology projections. The Horned Frogs would still host first- and second-round games if the tournament started today, with No. 13 Louisiana Tech as their first-round opponent. Tennessee and San Diego State would round out the subregion as the No. 5 and No. 12 seeds, respectively. TCU is currently in the Sacramento region for the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games.

This drop for the Horned Frogs is not surprising, given the loss at Colorado and back-to-back 1-1 weeks. TCU needs to string together some 2-0 weeks in order to remain a host seed. 

Kennedy Basham, Olivia Miles and the TCU women's basketball team moved down one spot in the latest NCAA Tournament projections. | Brian McLean - On Assignment Photo/KillerFrogs.com for TCU On SI

Bracketology: Big 12 Projections

The Big 12 has seven teams projected in the Big Dance. TCU is the highest-seeded team, followed by Baylor as a No. 5 seed. The Bears are slated to visit 4-seed Oklahoma in the Sacramento region. 

Here’s where the rest of the Big 12 teams are projected to go. Teams are listed by seed followed by the host school for the first and second rounds. 

Fort Worth Region

West Virginia - 5 seed - OIe Miss (4 seed)

Texas Tech - 6 seed - Iowa (3 seed)

Iowa State - 8 seed - UConn (1 seed)

Sacramento Region

Oklahoma State - 7 seed - Vanderbilt (2 seed)

Utah - 10 seed - LSU (2 seed)

First Four Out: Colorado & Arizona State

Next Four Out: BYU & Kansas

Bracketology: TCU & The National Picture

The top seeds are likely to remain the same for the remainder of the season. UConn is the No. 1 overall seed with UCLA, Texas, and South Carolina joining on the top lines. South Carolina is the top seed for TCU’s portion of the bracket. 

The Horned Frogs still have plenty of opportunity to get back to a No. 3 seed, but it’s unlikely they would reach a No. 2 seed. That would require surpassing a team like Ohio State, which beat TCU earlier this season. The Buckeyes are a three seed alongside Duke, Michigan State, and Iowa. The two seeds are Vanderbilt, Louisville, Michigan, and LSU. 

TCU can improve its resume with wins over Baylor and West Virginia this week. Those would be considered Quad 1 wins, a metric used, amongst other things, to determine tournament seeding, along with the NET. Quad 1 games are defined as a home game against a team ranked 1-25 in the NET, a neutral court game against an opponent 1-35 in the NET, and a road game against a team ranked 1-40 in the NET. The NET factors in winning percentage, game results, strength of schedule, game location, offensive and defensive efficiency, and quality of wins and losses.  

Baylor, TCU, and West Virginia are all ranked in the top 26 in the NET rankings, and right now, the Horned Frogs are 2-3 against Quad 1 teams. There’s no doubt TCU will make the NCAA Tournament; it’s just a matter of where it will play the first two rounds. 

Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament is March 15. 

Recommend Links

Powered by KillerFrogs.com