No. 3 Seed TCU Braces for 10-Seed Virginia in Sweet 16 Clash

TCU women’s basketball will battle Virginia on Saturday, March 28 for the right to continue its season into the Elite Eight of the women’s NCAA Tournament.

The No. 3 seed Horned Frogs (31-5) are in the Sweet 16 for the second straight year - and second time in program history - while the No. 10 Cavaliers (22-11) are making their 13th overall appearance in this round and first since 2000.

Virginia would snap a 20-year Elite Eight drought with a win while TCU would become one of five teams, or fewer, to reach the Elite Eight in both the 2025 and 2026 tournaments. The Horned Frogs could also become the second Big 12 program, alongside Baylor, to record 32 wins in consecutive seasons.

Tipoff is set for 6:30 p.m. central time from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento and the game will be televised on ESPN. The winner will face No. 1 seed South Carolina or No. 4 seed Oklahoma in the Elite Eight on Monday, March 30.

Last Time Out: TCU

TCU snuck by No. 6 seed Washington 62-59 in overtime during the Round of 32. The Horned Frogs trailed from the 7:07 mark of the second quarter until the final two minutes of regulation when center Clara Silva hit a layup off a behind-the-back pass from guard Olivia Miles.

TCU womens basketball — TCU center Clara Silva had 16 points in a Round of 32 win over Washington. | Brian McLean - On Assignment Photo/KillerFrogs.com for TCU On SI

A 7-0 run to open overtime helped TCU create enough separation to eventually punch a ticket to the Sweet 16. Miles led the Horned Frog with 18 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Silva tacked on 16 points while guard Taylor Bigby hit double-digits with 15.

Last Time Out: Virginia

Virginia pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the women’s NCAA Tournament to reach the Sweet Sixteen by downing No. 2 seed Iowa 83-75 in double overtime. The Cavaliers trailed by nine points entering the fourth quarter and tied the game 57-57 with 2:09 left. Neither team scored again until the first overtime.

Junior guard Kymora Johnson played the entire 50 minute game and posted 28 points, including 10-of-11 from the free throw line. Senior guard Paris Clark tacked on 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting to go alongside seven rebounds and four assists. Coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton, who is in her fourth season at Virginia, utilized the bench in the win as eight players played at least 10 or minutes.

The Cavaliers relied on defense to keep the game tight, racking up 27 points off 16 turnovers and holding the Hawkeyes to 36.9% shooting (31-of-84) from the field. Virginia did lose the rebounding battle 50-42 and committed 20 turnovers of its own.

Virginia’s Tournament Path

Virginia played three tournament games in five days since its journey started in the First Four against Big 12 foe Arizona State. The Cavaliers snuck out with a 57-55 victory while holding the Sun Devils below 37% shooting and forcing 16 turnovers.

Georgia gave Virginia all it could handle in the First Round as the game went into overtime tied at 71. The extra period belonged to the Cavaliers, though, as they outscored the Bulldogs 11-2.

Virginia then became the first team to advance from the First Four to the Sweet Sixteen with the win over Iowa.

Scouting Virginia

Virginia finished the season in eighth place in the ACC standings at 11-7. The ACC sent nine teams to the NCAA Tournament this season and the Cavaliers logged wins against three of them (Clemson, Louisville and Notre Dame) during the regular season.

Johnson earned the team’s only All-ACC nod as a first team selection. She became the first Cavalier to earn All-ACC honors in three straight seasons since Monica Wright in 2008-10.

A Women’s Basketball Coaches Association (WBCA) All-America Team finalist, Johnson is the clear leader of this Virginia team. Johnson’s 19.5 points per game rank second in the ACC and she leads the conference with 5.8 assists per contest. She set the program’s single-season mark for 3-pointers made in a season (99) and leads Virginia in steals (69).

Clark and Romi Levy, a graduate transfer guard from USF, fill out the other starting guard spots. Clark has tallied 100 assists and 57 steals this season while averaging 9.4 points per game. She is second on the team in 3-point attempts (96) behind Johnson (274).

Levy hit the 1,000 career point mark this season, is fourth on the team in scoring (8.3 points per game) and leads the team in 3-point percentage (36.4%) and the guards in overall shooting percentage (48.6%).

The Cavaliers usually have two starting forwards in Tabitha Amanze, a 6-4 transfer from Princeton, and Sa’Myah Smith, a 6-2 LSU transfer. Amanze has blocked 45 shots this season, a top 10 mark in the ACC, to pair with 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Smith chips in eight points and a team-high eight rebounds per game.

How TCU Matches Up

Like many other matchups this season, TCU has a size advantage. Centers Kennedy Basham and Silva stand two inches taller than Virginia’s tallest player, 6-5 forward Adean Ring. Ring has played in 28 games and has been a solid contributor in her 11 minutes per contest on the court. She posted two rebounds, two steals and three points in 16 minutes against Iowa.

Still, between Basham, Silva and 6-4 forward Marta Suarez the Horned Frogs have players they can rotate defensive assignments on Virginia’s forwards. Suarez will need to stay out of foul trouble to play with a physical, aggressive approach all game, but has proven she can still be effective while playing with three or four fouls.

Miles and Johnson are elite playmakers and it will be fun to watch how they engage their teammates throughout the game. The Horned Frogs probably have more talent around Miles, but the Cavaliers have proven they can compete with any team in the country. That’s partially because their defense, like TCU’s, can lockdown any opponent. Both teams consistently have held teams under 40% shooting (TCU - 33%, Virginia - 38%) and protect the rim at a high level (TCU - 5.28 blocks per game, Virginia - 6.39 blocks per game).

This game will likely come down to which role players have a bigger impact. TCU will need players like Silva, Bigby, Basham and guard Donovyn Hunter to continue stepping up and showcase their talents on a national stage to reach another Elite Eight.

TCU vs. Virginia: Early Betting Lines and Predictions:

As the Horned Frogs prepare for their Sweet 16 showdown at the Golden 1 Center, the oddsmakers have weighed in on this high-stakes Sacramento 4 Region semifinal. Whether you are looking at the point spread or the over/under, the betting markets tell a compelling story about how this game is expected to flow.

Current Betting Odds (BetMGM & DraftKings)

Point Spread: TCU -9.5

Over/Under Total: 130.5 Points

Moneyline: TCU-500 | Virginia +350

How to Watch

The Horned Frogs and Cavaliers are set to tip off in the late-night slot of the Sacramento Regional.

Date: Saturday, March 28

Time 6:30 p.m. CT

Location: Golden 1 Center - Sacramento, CA

TV: ESPN

Streaming: ESPN+ / WatchESPN

Join the Conversation

What's your score prediction for the Sweet 16? Head over to the KillerFrogs.com Fan Forum to discuss the match-up with fellow fans, share your takes on the rotation, and follow our live game thread starting at tip-off!

Diclaimer: All betting odds and lines are provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Betting on sports is currently illegal in the state of Texas. This article does not encourage or facilitate illegal gambling. 1-800-MY-Reset, Text: 800GAM, website: ncpGambling.org