UCF Win Tightens Bubble Race as TCU Fights for NCAA Tournament Spot

Orlando, Florida, is a magical, entertaining city, known worldwide for producing epic memories for millions of people each year.

Unfortunately, for the TCU men’s basketball team, Orlando was not the land of enchantment it thought it would be. Instead, the city was the location of the team’s latest nightmare.

On Mardi Gras Tuesday, February 17, the Horned Frogs were not in a partying mood in Orlando after an 82-71 loss to the UCF Knights, in a Big 12 Conference contest that was billed as an “NCAA Tournament Survival Bout” between two desperate teams.

In losing to UCF, the Frogs squandered a prime opportunity to enhance their 2026 NCAA Tournament resume, build further momentum, and boost confidence in themselves. In fact, the loss may have eliminated TCU from further NCAA Tournament consideration this season.

TCU came into the critical game with UCF tied with the Knights for eighth place in the Big 12 and riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak, which included an upset of then-No. 5 Iowa State. The Frogs had not lost since February 1.

UCF limped into the game on a three-game losing streak. The Knights had not won since upsetting then-No. 11 Texas Tech on January 31.

Most NCAA Tournament prognosticators project that a maximum of 7 Big 12 teams will make the NCAA Tournament. No. 2 Houston, No. 4 Arizona, No. 6 Iowa State, No. 8 Kansas, No. 13 Texas Tech, and No. 23 BYU have secured spots in the tournament.

Where TCU Stands in the Latest Projections

If a seventh Big 12 team is selected for the tournament, it is predicted to be TCU or UCF. The Knights’ victory over the Horned Frogs gives UCF the edge going into the final games of the regular season and the Big 12 Championship Tournament.

If UCF maintains its edge over TCU for the remainder of the season, the Horned Frogs could sneak into the tournament as the eighth team from the Big 12 if they finish strong and make a good showing in the Big 12 Championship Tournament.

TCU is 16-10 overall and tied with Cincinnati for ninth place in the Big 12 with a 6-7 record. The Frogs have five regular-season conference games remaining. Three of the games are at home: West Virginia (February 21), Arizona State (February 24), and Cincinnati (March 7). Two of the games are on the road: Kansas State (February 28) and Texas Tech (March 3).

TCU will be playing West Virginia, Arizona State, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati for the first and only times this season. TCU defeated Kansas State, 84-82, in Fort Worth on February 7. The Wildcats have since fired head coach Jerome Tang. Associate head coach Matthew Driscoll is K-State’s interim head coach.

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🆚 West Virginia
📆 Saturday
⏰ 4 PM
🎟️ https://t.co/ZSG3MALTKr #GoFrogs pic.twitter.com/Vntk6Y3SlV
— TCU Men's Basketball (@TCUBasketball) February 19, 2026

What Needs to Happen Next

To have any chance to be dancing in March, TCU needs to win four of the five remaining games to finish the regular season 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the Big 12. Over the years, no Big 12 team with a winning conference record has been left out of the tournament. If the Frogs secure only three more conference wins, they would finish the regular season with a lackluster 19-12 overall and 9-9 Big 12 record, which would probably exclude them from the tournament.

In either of those two scenarios, an upset win over Texas Tech in Lubbock, Texas, would be a significant resume-enhancer for the Horned Frogs. The Red Raiders will be without star forward JT Toppin. He suffered a torn ACL in his right knee in a 72-67 Tech loss to Arizona on Tuesday, February 18. He will miss the rest of the season.

“We have to respond to our loss (to UCF) after winning three in a row,” said TCU head basketball coach Jamie Dixon. “We’re going to get ready for West Virginia.”

UCF is 18-7 overall and tied with BYU and West Virginia for sixth place in the Big 12 with a 7-6 record. The Knights have five regular-season conference games remaining. Two of the games are at home: Baylor (February 28) and Oklahoma State (March 3). Three of the games are on the road: Utah (February 21), BYU (February 24), and West Virginia (March 6).

To ensure it is included in the NCAA Tournament, UCF probably needs to win at least three of its final games to finish the regular season 21-9 overall and 10-8 in the Big 12. If UCF only wins two of its final games and finishes the regular season with 20-10 and 9-9 records, the Knights will find themselves “on the bubble.”

After missing last season’s NCAA Tournament, the Horned Frogs desperately want to, and need to, play their way into this year’s tourney.

March Madness consists of 68 teams. TCU should be able to consistently be looked upon as one of the 68 best Division 1 basketball teams in the country. Winning and earning recognition as one of the top basketball programs is important for recruiting top players from high school and the transfer portal, as well as for retaining current players who are key to the program’s success. In addition to the pay they are offered and the program and school cultures, the country’s premier basketball players want to play on a team that wins at a high level and enables them to display their talent on a national stage, especially during NCAA Tournaments.

This Saturday, CBS Sports & TNT Sports unveil the current top 16 seeds for the NCAA Men's Tournament at 12:30 ET on CBS.

NCAA Committee Chair Keith Gill joins Adam Zucker, Wally Szczerbiak, Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis in studio.

Coverage continues at 1 ET on CBS Sports Network pic.twitter.com/hRmw3rVP04
— March Madness Men’s Basketball TV (@MM_MBB_TV) February 18, 2026

Why the Loss to UCF Matters So Much

Earning an NCAA Tournament berth would be a nice reward for this group of Horned Frogs. This is a young TCU team, consisting of holdovers and transfers and only one senior starter, that has been plagued by inconsistency, mental mistakes, the monumental need for a legitimate big man, and the lack of a go-to superstar. As such, it has been a roller-coaster year for these Horned Frogs, but they always have played hard, no matter the competition.

Getting into the NCAA Tournament also would be another noteworthy accomplishment for Dixon, who, as a TCU basketball alum, continues to strive to elevate the TCU basketball program into the sport’s upper echelon.

This is the 10th season of Dixon’s TCU head coaching tenure. Prior to him taking over the program beginning with the 2016-17 season, the Horned Frogs had finished in last place each year since beginning play in the Big 12 Conference in 2012.

Under Dixon, TCU has played in four NCAA Tournaments (2018, 2022, 2023, 2024. The Frogs’ 2018 NCAA appearance snapped a 20-year TCU NCAA Tournament drought. In 2022, TCU defeated Seton Hall to win a first-round NCAA Tournament game for the first time in 35 years. TCU also won a first-round NCAA Tournament game in 2023.

The Horned Frogs have been in the NCAA Tourney 11 times: 1952, 1953, 1959, 1968, 1971, 1987, 1998, 2018, 2022, 2023, and 2024. TCU reached its only Elite Eight in the 1968 tournament. The Frogs’ NCAA Tournament record is 7-11.

If the Frogs’ 2026 postseason reward is not the NCAA Tournament, a consolation prize would be one of the 32 teams selected for the 2026 National Invitation Tournament (NIT).

Dixon has led the Frogs to two National Invitation Tournaments (NIT) in 2017 and 2019. TCU won the 2017 NIT Championship, when the Frogs made the Final Four and defeated UCF and Georgia Tech in New York City’s Madison Square Garden.

The Horned Frogs have appeared in the NIT eight times: 1983, 1986, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2017, 2019. TCU’s NIT record is 17–7.

If not the NIT, there’s always the 2026 College Basketball Crown (CBC). Launched in 2025, the CBC is a postseason tournament for eight NCAA Division I men’s teams: two each from the Big 10, the Big 12, and the Big East, and two wild-card teams. Games will be played April 1-5 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena and the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. FOX and FS1 will broadcast the games.

Mar 26, 2025; Newark, NJ, USA; General view of a NCAA March Madness logo during a practice sessions in preparation for an East Regional semifinal games at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

2026 Big 12 Tournament:

• Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri.

• Dates: March 10-14

• First Round: (March 10)

• Second Round: (March 11)

• Quarterfinals: (March 12)

• Semifinals: (March 13)

• Championship Game: (March 14)

2026 NCAA Tournament:

Selection Sunday: March 15

First Four: March 17–18 (Dayton, Ohio)

First and Second Rounds: March 19–22 (Buffalo, Greenville, Oklahoma City, Portland, Tampa, Philadelphia, San Diego, St. Louis)

Regional Sites (Sweet 16/Elite Eight):

South: Houston, Texas

West: San Jose, California

Midwest: Chicago, Illinois

East: Washington, D.C.

Final Four: (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana)

Semifinals: April 4

Championship Game: April 6

2026 National Invitation Tournament:

• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana (Hinkle Fieldhouse & Gainbridge Fieldhouse)

• Selection Sunday: March 15

• First Round: Begins March 17

• Semifinals: April 2 (Hinkle Fieldhouse, located on the campus of Butler University)

• Championship: April 5 (Gainbridge Fieldhouse, downtown Indianapolis. The arena is the home of the Indiana Pacers of the National Basketball Association and the Indiana Fever of the Women's National Basketball Association)