9 Weeks Until Kickoff What Could Derail TCU Football's Playoff Hopes in 2026?

Everyone is talking about why TCU could contend for a Big 12 title, but every contender has weaknesses. From turnovers to replacing defensive stars, here are the biggest obstacles standing between the Horned Frogs and a College Football Playoff run in 2026.

TCU gave up 15 interceptions and 5 fumbles in 2025. The Frogs look to find the answer to its turnover problem this season. | AP Photo/George Frey

Expectations haven't been this high around TCU football in years. The Horned Frogs have the talent to compete for a Big 12 championship and possibly a College Football Playoff berth. But every contender has weaknesses. Here are four things that could keep TCU from reaching its goals in 2026.

Dropping Crucial Games, Ending the Season 9-4 or Worse

The good old 9-4 record has haunted the Horned Frogs for the past two seasons. In both instances, TCU failed to capitalize on some favorable matchups.  In 2024, TCU was favored at home against UCF and Houston, but they ended up losing both of those games. In 2025, TCU was in a similar position against Iowa State in Fort Worth; the Frogs lost 20-17. 

Losing games as the favorite can cost TCU in the long run this season, as a tough loss early on can leave no room for error, and a late-season loss can kill momentum. A matchup against BYU on October 3rd will be a tough battle for the Frogs. If they lose, the matchups against West Virginia, Kansas, and Kansas State become must-win home games for TCU. So how does the 2026 season go wrong for TCU? Dropping games they should win.

TCU Offense Continues Its Turnover Problems

Last season’s narrative was that the Frogs gave the ball up far too much on offense. Transfer Quarterback Jaden Craig looks to solve that problem as the Frogs had a total of fifteen interceptions last season and five fumbles. TCU improved as a team in the turnover margin from -6 in 2024 to +1 in 2025, but the timing of the turnovers last season hurt the team tremendously. 

Nov 18, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears linebacker Matt Jones (2) and TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) battle for control of a fumble during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Turnovers cost the game against Arizona State with a redzone interception and a late fumble by quarterback Josh Hoover, which led the Sun Devils to kick the game-winning field goal. Another example was the matchup in Manhattan, Kansas, where multiple interceptions and a fumble let the game get out of control, as Kansas State won 41-28. 

Turnovers could be the defining aspect of TCU football this season, and if they continue the offensive trend of giving the ball to the opposing team will hurt the Frogs just like in previous seasons. TCU addressed this issue by hiring University of Connecticut offense coordinator Gordon Sammis. Sammis will look to control the chaos that the Frogs’ offense causes. However, for the Frogs, if the impact of the new coach and new quarterback is nonexistent, the season could be over before it begins. 

No Player Fills the Role of Defensive Star

TCU’s defense lost key players to the NFL Draft this year. Jardarius ‘Bud’ Clark was drafted to the Seattle Seahawks, Kaleb Elarms-Orr was selected by the Buffalo Bills, and Namdi Obiazor was taken by the New England Patriots. Clark was a two-time All-Big 12 selection; Elarms-Orr led the team in tackles (130) in 2025, earning First Team All-Big honors, and Obiazor was an honorable mention All-Big 12 and honorable mention Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. 

TCU safety Bud Clark breaks up a pass during the 2024 SMU game. | Brian McLean - On Assignment Photo/KillerFrogs.com for TCU On SI

Those guys won’t be easy to replace, and if they aren’t to some degree, the TCU defense will be a liability on the field. Senior safety Jamel Johnson will have a chance to lead this defense. As a Jim Thorpe award semifinalist and second-team All-Big 12, Johnson has high expectations this season. Another concern for TCU fans is the impact of the front four. Who will be the star there? There is an opportunity for either Paul Oywale, the redshirt senior, to follow up on his career-best 2025 season, or Markus Deal, the defensive lineman who helped anchor a defense that went 7-2 with him in the starting lineup.

The TCU secondary is holding strong with veterans such as Vernon Glover and Kalen Carroll. However, if none of these players perform at least to their 2025 selves, fellow Big 12 teams will be licking their chops when TCU comes up on their schedule. 

National Perception of the Big 12 Could Hurt TCU's Playoff Resume

Since the College Football Committee induction, the strength of schedule is as important as ever. The Big 12 has found itself lagging behind the SEC and the BIG 10 when it comes to the number of teams making the College Football Playoff. If TCU finds itself in the mix of that conversation this year, the Big 12 will need to pull its weight. If Texas Tech takes a step back this season, if BYU falls off, or even if Arizona doesn’t live up to the preseason expectation, TCU’s path to the playoff becomes harder, regardless of the Frogs' success. 

TCU on SI Performs Through Thick and Thin

The good news for TCU is that every concern on this list is fixable. If Gordon Sammis cleans up the turnovers, the defense replaces its departed leaders, and the Frogs avoid another upset loss, the path to the Big 12 Championship, and possibly the College Football Playoff, is there.

TCUonSI.com is the place to keep up with TCU football as the season is just over the horizon. We want to hear from you! Let us know what can go wrong for the Frogs in 2026 on Killerfrogs.com.