A Former Player's Four Game Approach Reveals What Comes Next for the Frogs

Football teams rarely look at an entire season at once. Fans can. We look at 12 games and start calculating wins, losses, difficult road trips and possible paths to a conference championship.

Players cannot afford to think that way.

As a player, I kept myself from looking too far ahead by breaking the season into four-game sections. Each section gave me a target close enough to attack and a sample large enough to evaluate honestly.

That is how I would look at TCU’s season coming out of the bye.

The Frogs’ next four games are Grambling State, Arkansas State, UCF and BYU. The first two should provide opportunities to correct the mistakes from the 15-10 loss to North Carolina. The next two will show whether those corrections hold up when Big 12 play begins.

Then TCU gets another bye before facing Baylor and West Virginia.

That made this weekend useful even though TCU never took the field. UCF, BYU, Baylor and West Virginia all played, giving us our first look at the four opponents directly ahead on TCU’s Big 12 schedule.

UCF: How a Trap Game Actually Develops

UCF did what it was supposed to do against Bethune-Cookman, winning 73-6 while gaining 560 yards and building a 38-0 halftime lead.

UCF is TCU's opening Big 12 game — Nov 29, 2025; Provo, Utah, USA; UCF Knights linebacker Lewis Carter (20) runs after a catch for a touchdown against the BYU Cougars during the second half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That score gets your attention, but it is not what should concern TCU most about its trip to Orlando on Sept. 26.

It is everything surrounding the game.

TCU will play UCF after two home games against Grambling State and Arkansas State, which the Frogs should win. It will be their first Big 12 game, first road game and first trip to UCF. Then BYU comes to Fort Worth the following week.

Those are the ingredients that can turn a manageable game into a trap.

Trap games rarely develop because players decide that a game does not matter. They develop when everything surrounding it quietly tells you what is supposed to happen. You are expected to win, a bigger opponent is coming next and the previous games may have created confidence.

Then you go on the road and the game does not follow the script.

One explosive play, turnover, or special-teams mistake can change the environment. UCF hangs around, the crowd starts believing and suddenly, you are in a one-score conference road game against an athletic team with momentum.

That is why UCF’s 73 points matter less to me than the reminder that the Knights have enough speed to punish TCU if the Frogs help them.

TCU is about to get its own opportunity to overwhelm teams it should beat. The challenge is making sure success against Grambling State and Arkansas State creates better habits rather than false confidence.

If TCU starts thinking about BYU before it finishes with UCF, that is when the trap becomes real.

BYU: The Cougars Remain TCU's Measuring Stick

If UCF is the game TCU cannot allow to become uncomfortable, BYU is capable of making the Frogs uncomfortable itself.

BYU is TCU's measuring stick — Sep 5, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars defensive back Matthias Leach (27) leaps to celebrate with linebacker Cade Uluave (4) after making an interception during the second half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cougars beat Utah Tech 63-7, led 42-0 at halftime and finished with 521 yards. They converted nine of 11 third downs, forced four turnovers and committed none. Bear Bachmeier completed 16 of 20 passes for 198 yards and three touchdowns while adding another score on the ground.

BYU did not prove it is a Big 12 contender by overwhelming Utah Tech. The talent difference was too large for that conclusion.

It did show that the traits TCU already knows make the Cougars dangerous remain intact. BYU played efficiently, protected the football and finished drives. Those qualities travel better than a final score against an overmatched opponent.

TCU also has recent evidence. BYU beat the Frogs 44-13 last season, holding TCU to one conversion on 10 third-down attempts while producing four sacks and two interceptions.

The Cougars will have a bye before traveling to Fort Worth on Oct. 3, while TCU will play immediately after playing at UCF.

TCU has three games to prepare for the problems BYU will bring.

UCF looks like the trap. BYU still looks like the measuring stick.

Baylor: Sometimes a Loss Makes a Team More Concerning

Baylor provided the most useful information because the Bears faced the best opponent.

Baylor should have won this game against the Auburn Tigers — Sep 5, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Baylor Bears running back Dawson Pendergrass (35) runs the ball against the Auburn Tigers in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A year ago, Auburn beat Baylor 38-24 and rushed for 307 yards. That created an obvious question entering the rematch.

Had Baylor become more physical?

The Bears lost again, this time 17-16. If all you did was check the score, it would be easy to see another Baylor loss and move on.

That would be a mistake.

Auburn rushed for only 130 yards this time. Baylor recorded five sacks, 11 tackles for loss and three interceptions. The Bears outgained Auburn 436-389 and drove 75 yards for a late touchdown before their potential game-winning two-point conversion came up inches short.

Baylor lost, but the weakness Auburn exposed last season did not look the same.

Sometimes you need to judge future opponents by how they lost. Instead of being pushed around again, Baylor stood up physically against an SEC opponent and gave itself an opportunity to win late.

The Bears still rushed for only 103 yards, and close losses still count as losses. But this particular loss made TCU’s trip to Waco look more difficult, not less.

West Virginia: A Clear Strength and a Possible Weakness

West Virginia’s 31-24 victory over Coastal Carolina gave us a useful baseline.

TCU will play West Virginia later in the season — Sep 5, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers running back Cam Cook (4) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Mountaineers led 24-0 at halftime and finished with 281 rushing yards. Cam Cook rushed for 142 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. added 103 yards on the ground.

West Virginia showed it can control a game physically and remain committed to the run. The Mountaineers threw for only 132 yards, however, which suggests TCU may eventually want to force them to win another way.

Coastal Carolina threw for 373 yards and averaged 10.1 yards per attempt while outscoring West Virginia 24-7 after halftime. That gives TCU an early reason to believe there may be opportunities against the Mountaineers’ secondary.

One game is not enough to declare West Virginia’s pass defense broken. A rebuilt roster can change considerably over the next seven weeks.

This game gives us a baseline, not a conclusion.

By the time West Virginia reaches Fort Worth on Oct. 24, we will know whether those numbers exposed lasting weaknesses or simply early problems.

Four Games, Then Evaluate Again

TCU cannot do anything about those opponents yet.

Correct what went wrong in Dublin. Use Grambling State and Arkansas State to establish whether those corrections are becoming habits. Then carry them on the road to UCF and back home against BYU.

That is when we will know something about TCU, too.

For now, the focus is the four games directly ahead.

Play them. Evaluate them. Then use the second bye to set new goals and begin the next section.

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