TCU Horned Frogs Vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds, Betting Picks: College Football Week 10
Coming off the bye week, the TCU Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) are at a season-defining crossroads. In order to play in a bowl game, they need to win two games left on their schedule: at Texas Tech, vs. Texas, vs. Baylor, and at Oklahoma. Of course, easier said than done. They travel to Lubbock – a notoriously difficult place to play – to face the Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-5, 2-3).
TCU is a +3 underdog in the contest and the over/under sits at 59.5 points. Note: These are the lines at time of writing, betting odds are fluid.
TCU at Texas Tech kicks off Thursday, Nov. 2, at 6:00 p.m. CT on FS1. Catch the Horned Frogs' home radio broadcast on 88.7 FM KTCU.
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TCU At Texas Tech Pick Against The Spread
When betting into a market in which the line is set squarely on three points, it's wise to be patient one way or another. Historically, college football games end in a three-point differential 17% of the time, making this number pivotal in betting against the spread; a move on or off it gives either side a 17% implied probability boost.
But should the line stay at +3, I lean taking the points with TCU, even on the road.
Though the Frogs are dealing with injuries to their own QB room, Texas Tech is looking at a backup Behren Morton dealing with being banged up after losing starter Tyler Shough for the season. As a result, Tech's offense has leaned on dynamic back Tahj Brooks more. The run game has found a lot of success lately, though two of those opponents field poor defenses in BYU and Baylor.
Should linebacker Johnny Hodges return to the lineup Thursday, TCU is much better equipped to defend the run and force Morton to control the offense.
I'm not excited to bet TCU +3 – I'd rather take +3.5 – but that number's not likely to change before kickoff.
TCU At Texas Tech Over/Under Pick
I'll be up front – I believe 59.5 points (previously 60.5!) is a mistake. TCU and Tech both run up-tempo offenses and the defensive units have been inconsistent at times. But this game is priced like a 2014 Big 12 shootout, and I'm not convinced that's what we have on hand here.
Both offensive units have also been incredibly inconsistent. TCU was held out of the end zone against Kansas State while Texas Tech posted just 14 points against BYU in each of their last outings. Both offenses are on backup quarterbacks and neither uses their run game to its full effectiveness.
Returning Hodges is a big deal for the Frogs and greatly improves the stop unit. I expect a defensive outing more in-line with Weeks 4-7 than that of Week 1 or Week 8. In their last five games, Tech held opponents to 28 or fewer points four times, with the exception coming against Kansas State (who is averaging 40 points per game in their last three outings).
My favorite bet for this game is Under 59.5 points.
Brett Gibbons is a lead college football betting writer for TheLines.com.
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