TCU vs Kansas State Score Predictions From the KillerFrogs Staff

The Horned Frogs’ bowl hopes took another hit in Tucson, where Arizona rallied late to hand TCU a heartbreaking 29–28 loss. With three regular-season games remaining, the Frogs need two more victories to become bowl eligible.

That makes Saturday’s return to Fort Worth especially important.

TCU hosts Kansas State at 1 p.m. CT at Amon G. Carter Stadium, with the game televised on ESPNU. The Horned Frogs enter at 4–5 overall and 2–4 in Big 12 play, while the Wildcats arrive at 4–5 and 1–5.

TCU finishes its home schedule against Utah on November 21 before traveling to Texas Tech on Thanksgiving. Beating Kansas State would give the Frogs two opportunities to secure a sixth victory. A loss would leave them needing to win both remaining games.

Kansas State has struggled recently, dropping three straight games while dealing with injuries at quarterback. Avery Johnson is listed out for Saturday, and the Wildcats have started four different quarterbacks in four consecutive games.

Still, TCU has its own problems to solve. The Frogs must recover from another painful finish and turn an opportunity at home into a victory. Our Arizona report card examines the issues that followed TCU home from Tucson, while this week’s Midnite Madness takes a closer look at the frustration surrounding the program.

Can the Horned Frogs respond? Here are the KillerFrogs staff’s score predictions and the reasoning behind their picks.

TCU vs Kansas State Score Predictions

Aiden Reed (5–4): TCU 24–20

Baileigh Sheffield (5–3, eight submitted picks): TCU 28–17

Emma Swinney (6–3, two closest predictions): TCU 28–21

Jackson James (5–4): Kansas State 21–20

JD Andress (5–4, one closest prediction): TCU 24–10

Jason Phillips (4–5, one closest prediction): TCU 24–17

Michael Bara V (6–3, one closest prediction): TCU 28–24

Nathan Cross (4–5): TCU 33–13

Ryann Zeller (5–4, one closest prediction): TCU 27–17

Seth Dowdle (5–4): Kansas State 17–13

Skyler Gerard (4–5): TCU 23–17

Tom Burke (5–4, two closest predictions): TCU 27–21

Sean Foushee (5–4, one closest prediction): TCU 34–17

Tori Couch (5–4, one closest prediction): TCU 30–10

This week, 12 staff members picked TCU, while Jackson and Seth chose Kansas State.

The predictions range from a one-point Kansas State victory to a 20-point TCU win. Several staff members expect another close finish, while others believe the Horned Frogs can finally create some breathing room.

That represents a shift from last week’s Arizona predictions, when 11 of the 14 listed staff members picked the Wildcats.

KillerFrogs Staff Prediction Standings Through Arizona

TCU football team takes the field on November 6, 2026 against the ranked Arizona Wildcats in Tucson Arizona. | Tony Beblowski, KillerFrogs.com

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Arizona’s 29–28 victory rewarded the 11 staff members who picked the Wildcats.

Among those who selected the correct winner, Emma Swinney, JD Andress and Jason Phillips tied for the closest prediction with a combined score differential of 13. Emma predicted Arizona 35–21, while JD and Jason each picked Arizona 24–20.

Emma earned her second closest-prediction credit of the season. JD and Jason each collected their first.

Emma and Michael Bara V now share the best winner-picking record at 6–3. Most of the staff sits at 5–4, while Jason, Nathan Cross and Skyler Gerard are 4–5. Baileigh Sheffield is 5–3 across eight submitted picks.

Emma also retains the cumulative score-accuracy lead at 142, eight points ahead of Ryann Zeller at 150. JD is third at 156, followed by Seth at 160 and Jason at 162. Tom Burke is sixth at 164.

Cumulative differential adds the absolute error in each team’s predicted score across the season. A lower total is better. These standings measure score accuracy, while the win-loss records track correct winner selections.

Eight games have produced closest-prediction awards: Grambling State, Arkansas State, UCF, BYU, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and Arizona. Arizona’s three-way tie brings the total to 10 individual credits.

Sean Foushee earned the award for Grambling State, Tori Couch for Arkansas State, Tom for UCF, Ryann for BYU, Michael for Baylor, Emma for West Virginia and Tom again for Kansas. Emma, JD and Jason shared the Arizona award.

No credit was awarded for North Carolina because every staff member picked TCU and the Frogs lost.

Our Staff’s Reasoning Behind Their Picks

TCU has a defensive advantage: TCU is allowing just 15.8 points per game, compared with Kansas State’s 26.8.

— Baileigh Sheffield

Assuming Avery Johnson is unavailable, the Frogs finally win by more than one score. TCU’s defense limits K-State’s ground game, and the offense does enough to give us something we’ve been begging for: a little breathing room in the fourth quarter.

— Ryann Zeller

The Frogs get an uninspired KSU and should be able to break through in this one. I think this one turns into the Kari Ashley show.

— JD Andress

Sad game.

— Seth Dowdle

TCU is going to win. The Frogs will bounce back from the ending of the last game and play pretty solid football. Their defense will continue to be a dominant part of the team.

— Skyler Gerard

TCU has recently struggled against Kansas State, but with starting quarterback Avery Johnson sidelined, the Frogs somehow pull this one out.

— Aiden Reed

Somehow we win. Somehow we beat K-State. Somehow I’m going to watch this mess Saturday. Go Frogs.

— Michael Bara V

Share Your Prediction and Stay Connected

Can TCU return home and get a much-needed win? Share your predicted winner and final score in the Scott & Wes Frog Fan Forum, then join fellow fans for the game-day conversation.

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