2 Weeks Till Kickoff, What Stands Between TCU and the Big 12 Championship?

TCU has not returned to the Big 12 Championship Game since its run to the College Football Playoff during the 2022 season. Preseason projections have generally placed the Horned Frogs around sixth in the Big 12, leaving TCU outside the conference's expected top tier. What can help TCU’s path to the Big 12 championship and potentially the College Football Playoff?

TCU Can Control Its Own Path

TCU will face off against four out of the five teams predicted to finish ahead of them this season: Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Arizona. The 2026 schedule is built for the Frogs to earn what they deserve, as winning any of these matchups will help their climb to finish inside the conference’s top two.

Although this schedule is not for the faint of heart, TCU has to scratch and crawl through most games this season. TCU will need to avoid losing three conference games this season to maximize its odds of earning a berth in the conference championship game. Since 2020, no participant in the Big 12 Championship game has entered the game with three or more conference losses.

For TCU, winning all of their games would be a dream season, but if they could make it to October without a loss and then sweep their October opponents, they would have created a large room for error, as their November schedule is a gauntlet.

TCU’s opportunities at making the Big 12 Championship game:

One conference loss would put TCU in an excellent position to reach Arlington
Two conference losses could bring Big 12 tiebreakers into play

How Many Big 12 Losses Can TCU Afford?

If TCU finds itself with two losses at some point during the season, it's not impossible to play in the championship game. Since the creation of the Big 12 Championship game, it has featured two one-loss teams or better. If TCU drops a game or two, they could find themselves looking up at a tiebreaker come the end of the season.

Since 2021, there have been five instances of a Big 12 team losing only two games and missing the championship game. In 2021, Oklahoma finished 7-2 in conference but missed out on the championship game after losing the head-to-head against Baylor, who also finished 7-2. In a similar situation in 2023, Oklahoma missed out after losing the head-to-head against Oklahoma State.

In 2024, there was a four-way tie in the Big 12 standings. Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado finished with a 7-2 conference record. The Big 12 had to look at records against common opponents, as all four teams played Kansas, Kansas State, UCF, and Utah that season. Ultimately, Arizona State and Iowa State were awarded berths in the conference championship game.

Finally, in 2025, Utah missed out due to Texas Tech and BYU losing only one conference game.

On paper, if the Frogs control their own destiny, they should be fine; however, one slip-up, and they could be asking for fellow Big 12 teams to help them out.

The Four Big 12 Contenders Standing in TCU's Way

A competitive Big 12 helps TCU in more ways than one, most importantly, the Frogs' chances at the Big 12 Championship game. The aforementioned teams, Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Arizona, have a higher chance of making the championship than TCU; that doesn’t mean rooting against them completely.

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders' schedule is a calm walk in the park compared to fellow teams. Their toughest matchups are: vs. Houston, vs. Arizona, and vs. TCU. Predicted to finish atop the standings for the second consecutive season, Texas Tech enters the season as one of the favorites to return.

BYU

BYU made the conference championship last year, and they will look for redemption after their 34-7 loss against Texas Tech. However, their schedule is miles tougher than Tech’s. An early week 2 matchup against Arizona could prove troublesome, and traveling to TCU in the first week of October could send the season off the tracks. While their matchup against Notre Dame won’t affect the Big 12 standings, it could make their road game the following week tougher against UCF. Finally, they go on the road this year to play Utah. A tough schedule for the good team.

Utah

Utah missed out last year despite losing only two conference games. This season, the Utes appear to have a more favorable path. Their toughest games are against BYU, at Arizona, and at TCU.

Arizona

The final preseason contender, the Wildcats, looks to reach the conference championship game for the first time since joining in 2024. They play all the other contenders, go on the road against Kansas State, and host Arizona State.

Can TCU Get Back to Arlington?

While Texas Tech’s schedule favors them against the other Big 12 teams, TCU will be fighting hard against BYU, Utah, Arizona, and any other sleeper in the Big 12 for that final spot in the Big 12 conference. TCU does not need a perfect season to get back to Arlington. But the Horned Frogs' schedule gives them something nearly as valuable: opportunities to beat several of the teams most likely to stand in their way. Win enough of those games, and TCU may not need much help from anyone else.

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