Just How Improbable Was the Texas Longhorns' Comeback Win vs. Mississippi State?

The Texas Longhorns trailed the Mississippi State Bulldogs by a large margin in the fourth quarter of their matchup, but they found a way to get it done in Starkville, Mississippi.

Oct 25, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian reacts after beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs in overtime at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

For the second consecutive week, Texas Longhorns fans were forced to hold their breath and hope for the best as they watched their team brace for overtime.

However, this week’s matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs seemed particularly stressful. This extra anxiety could’ve been caused by the fact that Texas fans recognized how much it would take for their team to emerge victorious. 

Their win was an unlikely one, and previous SEC matchups help demonstrate just how rarely comebacks like this take place. 

How did the comeback take shape?

Oct 25, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian reacts after a touchdown during overtime against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

With a little over twelve minutes left in the fourth quarter, the scoreboard read 38-21, and the Longhorns trailed the Bulldogs by 17 points. 

Two unanswered touchdowns and a field goal later, the game was tied, and Texas had created its second consecutive overtime situation. 

Quarterback Arch Manning suffered an overtime injury, but backup quarterback Matthew Caldwell and a lights-out last-stitch effort by the Texas defense helped them secure a 45-38 win, defying the odds.

Previous games that mirror this matchup

Oct 25, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen (2) runs the ball during the third quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

According to ESPN research, the last time an SEC team came back from a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter and won the game was back in 2013. The South Carolina Gamecocks were the ones to pull off the comeback against the Missouri Tigers, ultimately finishing 27-24 in two overtimes. 

That means it has been 12 years since an upset of this level took place.

Several contributors helped make the win possible, including wide receiver Ryan Nibblet. Niblett returned a kick for 79 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter, helping lead Texas to this historic victory.

The other fourth-quarter touchdown took shape as a pass from Manning to wide receiver Emmett Mosley V, and kicker Mason Shipley was responsible for the field goal that helped close the 17-point gap. 

Sure, it might not be a good sign for the Longhorns that it took overtime to get the job done in Starkville, but they escaped their four-week road stint with a winning record.

If history continues repeating itself, a comeback of this magnitude might not take place for an SEC team this decade. 

"I told the team I don't know if I’ve ever been more proud of a football team," Texas Head coach Steve Sarkisian said.

Having it under their belts could help them establish momentum headed into their home matchup against Vanderbilt next week, and given how hot the Commodores have been recently, the Longhorns could use all the momentum they can find.