Texas vs Missouri Predictions: Can Longhorns Avoid Upset? Staff Picks and Scores

After getting to play their entire October slate in the Lone Star State, the Longhorns are once again leaving town for Columbia, Missouri, to take on the No. 18 Missouri Tigers.

While fans may already be looking ahead to next week's highly anticipated Death Valley matchup, the Tigers are certainly not a team to overlook. They're coming off a 34-10 blowout win over Arkansas — albeit, it was against the Razorbacks — and steamrolled the same Florida team that stunned Texas with a second-half comeback just a few weeks ago.

Saturday's matchup carries significant postseason implications, both for the College Football Playoff and the SEC championship race, as both teams enter with identical 3-2 conference records.

Here’s how the Texas Longhorns On SI Staff sees this one playing out.

Matt Galatzan

Texas has gotten back on track over the last two weeks, but various shortcoming are still very prevelent. Texas has struggled along offensive line, and as a result, the running game has suffered. Those issues have also caused a cascading effect on the passing game, making for an inconsistent product.

To make things worse, things on the injury front don't look good for the Horns. Kade Phillips, Ryan Wingo and Graceson Littleton are all banged up but should play, while Colin Simmons and Cam Coleman are less likely to play, and Hollywood Smothers and Nick Townsend were both lost for the year.

Texas can overcome these issues if the defense continues to perform at a high level. Ole Miss showed the blueprint to shut down the Tigers' offense. If Texas can stay on schedule on offense and avoid a third-quarter collapse, I think they can get it done.

Texas 27, Missouri 20

Phoenix Haigis

Texas has started to find their groove again with two major wins at home against Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The Longhorns now go back on the road against another ranked opponent in Missouri. As much momentum as Texas has going into this game, all the advantages matchup-wise go in favor of the Tigers.

Texas is dealing with a significant amount of major injuries with the addition of running back Hollywood Smothers being out for the season while Missouri will see their running back Ahmad Hardy return for the first time this season. The Tigers are one of the best teams at home this year and have the best turnover margin in the SEC against a Lorghorns team that has had turnover issues this season. Although Texas is favored, the math tells a different story and could eliminate the Longhorns’ playoff chances.

Missouri 31, Texas 24

Oct 31, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Missouri Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Brett Rojo-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Zion Trammell

Texas and Missouri have the makings of a defensive slugfest. It’ll be a cold morning in Columbia, Missouri, which could challenge the offenses. Both the Longhorns and Tigers rank in the top four in the SEC in average rushing yards allowed per game. Texas may need a big defensive play to win. I think Will Muschamp’s defense will deliver, and the Longhorns will win a close game on Saturday.

Texas 21, Missouri 17

Oct 24, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Mississippi Rebels wide receiver Traylon Ray reacts after an incomplete pass defended by Texas Longhorns defensive back Jelani McDonald during the second half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

JD Andress

Texas has multiple injuries to deal, and potentially more that could not fall off the injury report come game day.

However, this feels like the Arch legacy game that many have been begging to see. Perhaps it's also because that might be what HAS to happen, but I'm riding with believing in Manning in this one.

Texas 27, Missouri 20

Oct 31, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns linebacker Rasheem Biles reacts after making a defensive stop during the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Leo Barnes

All things considered, I still like this Texas team. This will be a defensive dogfight. It won't be pretty, and it might even be a little boring at times — that is, if all you care about is high-flying action. And while the injury report isn't promising one bit, I still believe this Texas defense can be every bit as legitimate as it's proven itself to be.

Stopping Missouri starts with shutting down the run game, and I fully expect Justin Cryer and Rasheem Biles to help answer the call. I could easily see either one leading the team in tackles by the time it's all said and done. Ultimately, Texas' ability to stonewall opposing offenses should be enough to keep the Tigers in check, giving its sometimes-average offense just enough breathing room to squeak out another win.

Texas 20, Missouri 10

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