The One Thing Standing Between Arch Manning and the Heisman Trophy

Although Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has hinted to the possibility of Texas quarterback Arch Manning returning for another season in 2027, the most likely timeline for Manning's future is still set on the upcoming 2026-27 season being his last with the Texas Longhorns.

If that's true, the expectation for Manning to both win the Heisman and carry the Longhorns to a championship season is higher than ever. Texas' season is incredibly dependent on Manning's performance at the helm, and the Longhorns' success is synonymous with Manning's.

Preseason odds still rate Manning as the best quarterback in the country, affirming confidence in Manning's ability to take the Heisman trophy home in December. Yet there is still one thing standing in Manning's way.

Manning's Chance At the Heisman Depends on a Playoff Run

Texas quarterback Arch Manning. — Dec 31, 2025; Orlando, FL, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs with the ball against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Manning's steady improvement over the course of the 2025-26 season was undeniable, yet his name was nearly completely erased from the running Heisman candidates. Losses to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia damaged his chances at making a trip to New York — and also took a playoff berth from the Longhorns after making back-to-back runs for a national championship title.

Despite a strong finish to the season with three top-10 ranked wins, including a regular season-ending game against No. 3 Texas A&M, the Longhorns ultimately ran out of time and settled for a post-season bowl game against Michigan. Manning was left with no playoff game appearances to extend his name into a Heisman ballot. Now, he has some odds to beat when considering Texas' performance last season.

Although preseason odds currently have both Manning and the Longhorns as favorites to take the Heisman, take the SEC Championship and make a relatively successful playoff run, the actual reality is that Texas is faced with two choices: Either repeat the disappointment of last season or fully deliver on the promises supplied by critical coaching changes and a revamped roster.

If Manning continues to build off of the growth seen in his performance at the end of the 2025-26 season, and if the Longhorns manage to make their way into the playoffs through learning from last year, his chances at gaining the Heisman are extremely high. He already had some considerable numbers on paper from last year, and with explosive playmakers like wide receiver Cam Coleman by his side, he's all set to have a successful individual season.

But it's also worth noting that most Heisman winners have seen it through to the playoffs, with a recent exception being Colorado athlete Travis Hunter in 2024. Since then, playoff consideration is even more important with the move to a 12-team bracket.

A playoff run isn't dictated just by one player, but by the overall performance of an entire team. In order for Manning's name to be called in December 2026, the Longhorns as a whole must perform well enough to make a case for a postseason run.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google