Where Texas Lands in Early College Football Playoff Projections

Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns are projected to face a familiar opponent in next year's College Football Playoff.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) hands off to running back CJ Baxter (4) during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Looking ahead to the 2026 college football season, the Texas Longhorns once again find themselves firmly in the College Football Playoff discussion. In fact, with a top-10 transfer portal and some notable veterans returning to the program, head coach Steve Sarkisian's program may be in national title conversations during the offseason.

While it's only been days after the 2025 national championship, it's never too early to start projecting how each program will fair next season. On Thursday morning, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his College Football Playoff projections, with Texas projected to face Ohio State in the opening round of the playoff.

It's worth noting that the Longhorns are already set to face the Buckeyes in Week 2 of the 2026 college football season. If the projected matchup comes to fruition, it would be the fourth time in only three years that two of the biggest brands in the sport have faced each other.

ESPN’s way too early college football playoff prediction for 2026! pic.twitter.com/Tr1lzcMIva

— College Football Zone (@CollegeFBonX) January 23, 2026

The Way-Too-Early Evaluation of Texas and Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) motions during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Connelly's reasoning for Texas making the 2026 College Football Playoff is based on the program's growth in the later half of the 2025 season. In their final eight games of the season, they put together an impressive 7-1 record with three top-15 wins and a Cheez-It Citrus Bowl win over No. 18 Michigan. Connelly added that the Longhorns are one of the more proven teams in college football heading into next season.

Arch Manning's notable growth within Steve Sarkisian's offense also appeared to convince Connelly that Texas is positioned to take a real step forward on the offensive side of the ball. Combine the quarterback's notable growth with the transfer portal addition of five-star wide receiver Cam Coleman, and you get a passing game that's ready to take college football by storm.

While there are some questions from Connelly about Texas' ability to get past the Georgia Bulldogs, the Buckeyes are a consistent threat in the Big Ten until proven otherwise. Ohio State went undefeated in the regular season, but their offense fell short when it mattered most against Indiana and Miami.

Even with their disappointing end to the 2025 season, Ryan Day and his program will likely be firmly in playoff contention late in the season. While Connelly doesn't have the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten, his belief in Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith is strong enough to give them a top-7 seed in the playoff.

Who's Coming Out On Top?

Oct 25, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian reacts after beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs in overtime at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The good news is that Connelly has the Longhorns finding a win over Ohio State in the first round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. The bad news is that he also projects that Texas will fall short against the Georgia Bulldogs.

While this would be an underwhelming finish to a season filled with high expectations for the Longhorns, Connelly reasoned that the recent hiring of defensive coordinator Will Muschamp makes things interesting. While he still believes that Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs still have the edge, Muschamp's familiarity with Georgia's offense could give Texas a blueprint for success.