Best Bets, First College Football Playoff Rankings

With the initial College Football Playoff Rankings coming out Tuesday, Nov. 2, here are where the teams will be ranked and why.

Author:
Brian Smith
Publish date:
Nov 1, 2021 6:28 PM EDT

There’s one dominant team in college football this year, Georgia. Beyond the Bulldogs, it’s a major debate as to where teams should be ranked. However, there are some tendencies to follow.

Due to how voters traditionally think, as well as recent history, there are some good bets about how the playoff rankings will shake out, at least for week No. 1.

Here’s a look at the projected rankings, with some commentary as to why with each of the top 10 teams being mentioned. The additional five spots are just a reminder that things can change quickly, and if any one of the teams ranked No. 11 through No. 15 get hot they could make a run at the playoffs as well. Here are the projected rankings:

Georgia 8-0
Alabama 7-1
Ohio State 7-1
Michigan State 8-0
Oklahoma 8-0
Cincinnati 8-0
Oregon 7-1
Michigan 7-1
Notre Dame 7-1
Wake Forest 8-0
Texas A&M 6-2
Baylor 7-1
Oklahoma State 7-1
Auburn 6-2
Ole Miss 6-2

The Best Two Teams in the Land

There’s no disputing Georgia, as the defense allowed just 53 points so far in 2021. The Bulldogs are not winning, they are dominating; by far the best team in the land as of early November.

Alabama might roll some eyes at No. 2, but besides Georgia, no team is as complete as the Crimson Tide. Ironically, Alabama could be knocked out of the rankings when it plays Georgia in the SEC Title Game in early December.

Maybe No. 3 and No. 4?

Are the Buckeyes now the third best team? This is the spot where it gets murky. Ohio State’s defense was mauled by Oregon, but during its last three games opponents combined for just 123 rushing yards. Everyone knew Ohio State could score, but now the Buckeyes are playing good run defense again. Ohio State continues to trend upwards.

Garrett Haskell Ohio State — After a shaky start to 2021, the Ohio State defense is playing very well
Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch

The feel-good story of the year would be the Spartans. Nobody picked the team that went 2-5 during the COVID-shortened 2020 season to be ranked, let alone 8-0 and ranked in the top four in the country. Well, nobody knew that running back Kenneth Walker would be sitting with 1,194 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns right now either. The Spartans play at Ohio State on Nov. 20, and host Penn State on Nov. 27.

If Cincinnati made it into the No. 3 or No. 4 positions it would not be shocking, but the schedule for the Bearcats is really bad minus the win at Notre Dame. Will it be enough to leapfrog two traditional Big 10 programs? Do not count on it based on how the Playoff Committee has looked at non-Power Five schools since 2014.

Rounding Out the Top Six

The Sooners are a team that’s up-and-down, but with Caleb Williams making big plays and the defense at least playing somewhat better, Oklahoma should be safe to make the top five, if not reach into the top four. The only concern here, much like the team ranked right below them, would be the schedule. There’s no ranked win for the Sooners. Again, that’s going to hurt the Sooners with the Playoff voters.

Finally, Cincinnati comes in at No. 6. Probably deserving of a higher ranking, but those prior non-Power Five teams did not receive much love. Will the Bearcats? They are a really good defense, but the offense has been somewhat inconsistent. That’s not going to help with the eye test either.

Still Time to Make a Move

If Oregon can finish out strong, there’s a chance they could reach the playoffs. The Ducks did lose to a mediocre Stanford team though. That’s going to sting with the committee. Also, a more consistent passing game will be needed the rest of the football season if the Ducks are to make it into the top four. Right now, Oregon averages just 238.3 yards passing per contest.

Michigan just flat out choked, to its rival Michigan State, this past Saturday. To be honest, the Wolverines could be ranked lower after blowing a big lead against the Spartans. There’s no excuse for losing after being up more than two touchdowns. If the Wolverines somehow defeat Ohio State, however, that would be redemption for at least one rivalry game at least.

Notre Dame continues to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. They find ways to win close games, but are the Irish really a top 10 team? Maybe not, but there really are not 10 good college football teams for 2021. Also, the Irish have been hit by the injury bug, and will need to be careful down the stretch of their schedule. However, Notre Dame will be favored in each of its remaining games.

Give a shout out to Wake Forest. It’s undefeated, scoring a lot of points, and the Demon Deacons find a way to win. Even if it was a 70-56 victory over Army two weekends ago, it’s still a win.

Final Thoughts

Look for a lot of complaining, especially from Cincinnati fans, if this poll turns out to be correct. Perception and history present the reasons for the rankings above, and it’s also why fans should not be surprised with what the College Football Playoff committee does with the rankings.

While the first rankings can be somewhat unpredictable, it’s not really as hard as some make it out to be. There are trends with Power Five programs that the committee follows each year. Let’s see if that changes on Tuesday when the rankings come out.

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