Stacking Up, Tulane at UCF

Statistics and trends to know heading into this Saturday’s matchup when Tulane comes to the Bounce House to play UCF.

Author:
Brian Smith
Publish date:
Nov 2, 2021 6:10 AM EDT

ORLANDO - UCF will be hosting a Tulane team that’s capable of scoring, and will need to come into the contest mentally prepared to play. Looking at Tulane’s 1-7 record, it would be easy to write this game off as a win.

That’s a mistake, because Tulane is capable of winning a shootout, depending on the status of its starting quarterback (see below).

Team Statistics to Know, Per Game Averages

Points: UCF 34.8, Tulane 29.6

Points Allowed: UCF 25.9, Tulane 40.9

Total Yards: UCF 420.5, Tulane 387.5

Rushing Yards: UCF 204.9 Tulane 152.8

Passing Yards: UCF 215.6 Tulane 234.8

Rushing Yards Allowed: UCF 158.4, Tulane 185.0

Passing Yards Allowed: UCF 203.4 Tulane 291.0

Prior Three Games, Scores and Key Trends

Tulane lost 40-22 to Houston, 55-26 to SMU and 31-12 to Cincinnati. By giving up 126 points during the last three games, Tulane allowed 42.0 points per contest. During those same three games, the Green Wave offense averaged just 338.7 yards per contest. Now, that’s against three quality football teams, but it’s 48.8 yards below the Tulane overall season average.

It’s important to note that Tulane’s usual starting quarterback, Michael Pratt, did not play against Cincinnati due to concussion protocol. In his absence, Kai Horton struggled. The freshman from Carthage, Texas went 7/18 for 79 yards and three interceptions. Prior to the injury, Pratt’s eight games behind center earned him 125/212 for 1,598 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

The health of Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt (#7) might be the biggest factor heading into Saturday's contest
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

If Pratt does not play against UCF, then Tulane will likely be in big trouble against a UCF passing defense that allowed just 336 total passing yards during the past two games, along with three interceptions.

UCF, meanwhile, lost to Cincinnati 56-21, and then won versus Memphis 24-7 and Temple 49-7. During those three games, the UCF offense saw an uptick in production, going from 296 yards of offense versus Cincinnati and 295 yards versus Memphis to 428 yards versus Temple.

Did UCF freshman signal caller Mikey Keene take the next step versus Temple? He will be playing against a Tulane defense that does not defend the pass well, allowing 22 touchdown passes and just intercepting six passes, to go along with their No. 124 passing defense for yards allowed.

Rushing Attacks Propel UCF and Tulane Offenses

UCF’s lowest rushing output of the season would be 148 yards versus Navy, with their last three games producing 155 versus Cincinnati, 215 versus Memphis and 199 versus Temple.

With lead running back Isaiah Bowser back in the lineup and appearing to be at full strength, the Knights should come out running the football downhill. Barring something unforeseen, that will also likely be how the UCF offense operates for much of the game to allow Keene an opportunity to utilize play-action passing and take deep shots.

As for success, UCF”s consistency with running the football should be something that continues against a porous Tulane rush defense, which allowed an average of 148.3 yards rushing during its last three contests. Overall, the Green Wave allowed 185.0 yards rushing per game for the season. Moving to Tulane’s offense, it was not quite as consistent as UCF.

Tulane’s lowest rushing total was 90 yards versus the University of Alabama-Birmingham, and the last three games produced 94 yards to Houston, 194 against SMU and 187 versus Cincinnati. The last two games were impressive, and it’s due to a two-man rotation at the running back position.

The combination of Tyjae Spears and Cameron Carroll produced 165 yards and one touchdown versus SMU, and it accumulated 170 yards and one touchdown versus Cincinnati.

Spears stands 5’10”, and 195 pounds, with Carroll being 6’0”, 225 pounds. The differing sizes and styles of play are somewhat similar to Johnny Richardson and Bowser for the Knights. UCF will certainly have its hands full with either of the two running backs regardless of which quarterback steps behind center for the Green Wave.

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