UCLA's Win Chances in Every 2025 Season Matchup

Let's go through every game and see how likely the Bruins are to win them this season.

Jul 24, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The UCLA Bruins open the 2025 season in one week at the Rose Bowl against the Utah Utes. With a ton of expectations preceding them, let's go through each game this year and see their odds to win every game.

For each game, we will be looking at UCLA's percentage chances to win the matchup according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).

vs Utah, Aug. 30 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 52.1%

Jan 1, 2022; Pasadena, CA, USA; A Utah Utes football helmet sits on the field with a sticker honoring players Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe before the 2022 Rose Bowl college football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Despite being widely regarded as underdogs going into the matchup against the Utes, ESPN's analytics have given the Bruins a slight edge to start the season. Winning this game will be a crucial tone-setter for UCLA's season.

at UNLV, Sept. 6 (Sat), FPI Wins Odds: 41.9%

Oct 22, 2022; South Bend, Indiana, USA; A UNLV helmet sits on the field during the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the UNLV Rebels at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

UCLA is projected to lose this matchup despite the Rebels barely making it past FCS Idaho State to open the season in Week 0. Granted, these FPI ratings were curated before the season. Nonetheless, updated analytics may sway the odds more towards the Bruins.

vs New Mexico, Sept. 12 (Fri), FPI Win Odds: 90.7%

Oct 23, 2021; Laramie, WY, USA; A general view of New Mexico Lobos football helmet during a game against the Wyoming Cowboys at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-UW Media-Athletics | Troy Babbitt-UW Media-Athletics

As they should be, the Bruins are heavy favorites to win their Week 3 matchup against the Lobos. Stringing together wins early in the season will be crucial to starting conference play off with momentum the following week.

at Northwestern, Sept. 27 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 49.3%

Sep 30, 2017; Madison, WI, USA; Northwestern Wildcats helmet on the field prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

One of UCLA's closest Big Ten matchups, according to ESPN's analytics, the Wildcats are going to be a strong, early litmus test for the Bruins as they take on the rest of the season. If a few things swing their way in the previous weeks, a 4-0 start isn't too far-fetched.

vs No. 2 Penn State, Oct. 4 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 18.0%

Nov 16, 2013; University Park, PA, USA; General view of a Penn State Nittany Lions helmet prior to the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

As expected, the Bruins will be heavy underdogs against those who many deem to be the favorites to win the 2025 college football national championship. The Nittany Lions may be UCLA's first penned-in loss of the season, but putting out a valiant effort my shift the narrative for the remainder of the season.

at Michigan State, Oct. 11 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 45.4%

Nov 24, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; A Michigan State Spartans helmet sits on a bench during the second half game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images | David Reginek-Imagn Images

This projection is slightly striking. While many national pundits expect UCLA to be considerably better than the Spartans this season, ESPN's analytics don't give the Bruins a chance. Maybe it is factoring in the fact that this game will be played at 9 a.m. Los Angeles time.

vs Maryland, Oct. 18 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 69.9%

Oct 1, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; A detailed view of a Maryland Terrapins helmet on the sidelines during the second half of the game between the Maryland Terrapins and the Iowa Hawkeyes at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-Imagn Images | Scott Taetsch-Imagn Images

Following an early, East Coast game against the Spartans, UCLA heads back to The Rose Bowl to take on a shoddy Maryland team. The Bruins enter this matchup as sizable favorites over the Terrapins.

at No. 20 Indiana, Oct. 25 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 22.7%

Nov 9, 2024; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; A view of Indiana Hoosiers helmet before the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

You can't necessarily write this loss down in pen, but a pencil seems appropriate. UCLA's second of three ranked opponents this season, the Hoosiers are going to be a tough road matchup for the Bruins.

vs Nebraska, Nov. 8 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 47.9%

Nov 15, 2014; Madison, WI, USA; A Nebraska Cornhuskers helmet sits on the field during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin won 59-24. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The Cornhuskers are going to be another test for UCLA this season. If the Bruins are indeed who many think they are -- a great improvement beyond last season -- then a win is more likely than what the analytics are projecting.

at Ohio State, Nov. 15 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 7.1%

Jan 18, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; A Ohio State Buckeyes helmet on the field during practice at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

This is UCLA's lowest odds of any matchup of the season. A duel against the defending champs may be the Bruins' second penned-in loss of the season, and it comes at a potentially crucial portion of the season.

vs Washington, Nov. 22 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 46.8%

Sep 21, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Detail view of a Washington Huskies helmet before a game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

This matchup is similar to the Michigan State game. The Bruins are widely considered a better team than the Huskies going into the season, and yet, Washington is favored marginally. Deeper into the season, team identities will be formed, and the odds may shift.

at USC, Nov. 29 (Sat), FPI Win Odds: 17.9%

Sep 21, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; USC Trojans helmet on the sideline during the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Despite the rivalry being relatively even over the last few years, the Trojans just have more upside than UCLA this season. But, as we've prefaced with a few matchups, if UCLA is an improved team, a win won't be too far-fetched.

ESPN's FPI has UCLA's projected win-loss record at 5.1-6.9, which wouldn't at all be an improvement on last season.

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