UCLA Faces Interesting March Madness Odds

UCLA has had a turbulent season this year, having the biggest upsets and the saddests blowouts, all before the March Madness tournament has even started.

They were able to continue their path to the tournament in their most recent win against the USC Trojans, a game that gave hope to social media, but they are not even guaranteed a spot in the tournament yet.

However, if they are to get in as their season projects them to, how will they perform based on their season thus far as they look forward to bigger things?

The Games That Project A Final Four Finish Or Better

Purdue

The Bruins have had their fair share of upsets this year, and possibly the biggest came against the Purdue Boilermakers who were ranked as the #4 team in the nation at the time.

They should not have been able to be toppled, yet UCLA found a way to come out on top through a huge comeback in the second half.

That comeback ability, especially against teams that are known to be better than UCLA, will be essential in March Madness and can put UCLA in the final four round, or better.

Illinois

The comeback that occurred against Purdue happened against the Illinois Fighting Illini with one key difference; they did most of their climbing in the first half, not the second half.

Once they were able to get themselves back in the game all they had to do was hold on for a victory, and that is what happened down to the final buzzer beating shot in overtime by Donovan Dent.

The play that occurred against Illinois could push the Bruins to the final four and better, but not everything projects success for UCLA.

The Games That Project An Early Exit

UCLA, Michigan State, Xavier Booke — Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler, left, shakes hands with former teammate UCLA's Xavier Booker after the game on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan State and Michigan

The Bruins had their worst stretch of the year against Michigan and Michigan State, back-to-back, in games that both resulted in blowout losses.

Those games showed the bad side of UCLA, and if that side comes out during March Madness an early exit will be more than likely.

Indiana

The Bruins have proven that they can be clutch and come back in crazy scenarios; however, they are not always able to finish a comeback where it started.

That was the case against Indiana, as they had the chance to seal the game in double overtime and the shot didn't land, giving them a crushing loss that can just as easily come out in March as their wins against top ranked teams.

Overall

UCLA, Michigan Wolverines, Donovan Den — Feb 14, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Donovan Dent (2) dribbles defended by Michigan Wolverines guard Trey McKenney (1) in the second half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

UCLA has a legitimate shot to go on a cinderella run in March Madness should they make the tournament, which they most likely will.

They have proven that they can win huge games against opponents that should be better than them; however, they also can lose in devastating ways should they not be in the right mindset.

They will be one of the biggest boom or bust teams in the tournament, and if they can keep playing the way that they have been playing they will end up as a boom, not a bust.

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