UCLA vs. NC State Holiday Bowl: Storylines to Watch

UCLA football (8-4, 6-3 Pac-12) is scheduled to kick off the Holiday Bowl against No. 18 NC State (9-3, 6-2 ACC) on Tuesday at 5 p.m.

The Bruins ended the regular season on a three-game winning streak, beating Colorado, USC and Cal in blowout fashion to clinch their first bowl appearance since 2017. The Wolfpack won back-to-back games to end their season, remaining in the race for their division title until the very end and still ending the year ranked regardless.

Heading into the high-profile bowl matchup, here are the most pressing questions we want to have answered by the final whistle.

A change of pace or more of the same?

The stat has almost become tired at this point, but that doesn't make it any less pertinent heading into the postseason – none of the Bruins' 11 wins the past two years have come against teams with winning records.

The Wolfpack don't only have a winning record, they're cut and dry one of the best teams the blue and gold will have played all year. Utah is a top-10 team and smothered UCLA with ease, and the Arizona States, Oregons and Fresno States of the world also took it to the Bruins for large chunks of those games.

So riding into the biggest game of the season on a three-game winning streak, this is the Bruins' chance to prove their red-hot November wasn't just a result of playing inferior competition. UCLA hung 40-plus on Colorado, USC and Cal, but much of the discussion in those blowout wins surrounded how bad those three teams were.

If the Bruins can put up points in bunches against a top-20 defense and pull out a win versus a ranked team, many fans can end the season feeling somewhat vindicated.

As much as coach Chip Kelly is mocked for refusing to recognize the concept of momentum, winning a game in December 2021 admittedly isn't going to help UCLA on the field come fall 2022. Still, ending the season on a high note, breaking through and capping off a resurgent second half with a quality win, would certainly give the program itself enough momentum and positive vibes to carry through the offseason.

Will this be the end of the DTR era?

Most of the questions early in the season surrounded whether or not this would be the final year of Kelly's tenure in Westwood. Even though he still has his detractors and his extension has yet to be signed, it seems that question has been answered and that he'll be sticking around at least a little while longer.

The future of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was also something lingering in fans' minds most of the season, and the consensus in recent weeks has been that he'll leave for the NFL Draft this offseason. The most telling sign might have been when UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel announced he'd be transferring to UCLA, presumably with the impression Thompson-Robinson would be gone and the starting job would be up for grabs.

However, Thompson-Robinson reposted a photo from Las Vegas lifestyle brand Mentality on his Instagram story on Monday, and that photo read "2020 Humbled me, 2021 Empowered me, 2022 I'm coming back." Now, that is far from Thompson-Robinson officially announcing his return for a fifth year, but it's too on the nose for it to be an accident.

Our money is still on Thompson-Robinson leaving, though, and this might just be an example of him trying to play the game or drum up some buzz around his impending decision. If that is the case, and the Holiday Bowl is his last appearance in blue and gold, it stands as a chance for him to put his growth and immense talent on display one last time.

For as much criticism as Thompson-Robinson got as an underclassman in regards to his turnovers and other shortcomings, he has addressed almost all of them the past two seasons, and he was simply one of the best quarterbacks out west in 2021. National audiences might not know it though, with the Bruins being unranked throughout most of Thompson-Robinson's breakout year while others hogged headlines in Heisman and College Football Playoff circles.

It's going to be a great quarterback battle Tuesday, with NC State's Devin Leary playing his best in 2021 as well, but there's a lot more at stake than just that positional head-to-head when it comes to Thompson-Robinson.

A win could help redefine his legacy in Westwood and further push back against the haters who have been tailing him from the second he arrived on campus. Thompson-Robinson could prove capable of winning the biggest game on the biggest stage he's played on, and he could prove that he is a legitimate NFL prospect in the process.

Thompson-Robinson going out with a bang wouldn't just give UCLA its best chance at victory, it would also potentially set him up to take an even bigger next step moving forward.

Can UCLA run the ball?

It's no secret that the Bruins rely heavily on running the ball, and it's equally evident that the Wolfpack are more than capable of stopping it.

UCLA led the Pac-12 with 219.7 rushing yards per game in 2021, a position they've familiarized themselves with plenty since Kelly arrived. First, it was Joshua Kelley, then it was Demetric Felton and then it was Zach Charbonnet, and Brittain Brown contributed more than his fair share as the latter two's backup as well.

Charbonnet was second in the conference in rushing this year, and Brown was comfortably inside the top 10 himself before missing the final two games of the year with an injury. Brown is back to full strength now, so the Bruins are going to have both backs geared up and ready to run the ball early and often Tuesday.

UCLA is going to need them to be their usual efficient, powerful selves too, since they are 7-1 when rushing for over 200 yards as a team and 1-3 when they don't. Bump that threshold up to 225 rushing yards, and the Bruins are undefeated when they exceed it.

On the other hand, NC State boasts a top 25 run defense in the nation, allowing just 124.3 per game on the season. Running their unique 3-3-5 formation, the Wolfpack have only allowed opposing teams to break the 200-yard mark twice this season in 12 games, and they managed to win both of those games by severly limiting the pass.

So essentially, NC State makes it very difficult to run the ball, and even if UCLA is able to do that, they're going to need an efficient pass game and creative play calls to convert all of that into a win.

This strength-on-strength battle could end up being the deciding factor Tuesday, and it's going to take really creative scheming for either side to earn the upper hand in the trenches.

What will the environment be like?

UCLA has struggled to draw fans to its home games at the Rose Bowl the past few seasons, and the stadium has really only reached high levels of electricity on three occasions since Kelly arrived.

The USC game in 2018 was packed and loud, the LSU game this past September was rowdy and the Oregon game in October with ESPN's College GameDay coming to town was a solid, respectable turnout that could have been turned up a notch if things had ended differently.

Playing a ranked Power Five team in a bowl game is a bigger stage than any of those were, so moving the setting down south a couple hours, it begs the question of how well the Bruin faithful will travel.

Part of that question has already been answered, with multiple outlets reporting that roughly 32,000 attendees are expected Tuesday night. That would be the fewest in Holiday Bowl history, but it comes with the notable caveat that the game used to be played in the 70,000-seat Qualcomm Stadium rather than the roughly 42,000 who fit into Petco Park.

The raw attendance numbers may be lower, but the percentage filled is going to be roughly the same as when USC and Iowa played in the 2019 Holiday Bowl.

Just looking at the early photos taken of the gridiron all set up in the baseball stadium, it looks gorgeous. From the San Diego skyline to the contrast of UCLA's blue and NC State's red in the end zones, it’s about as picturesque as you can get when you’re not playing in the Rose Bowl.

At the same time, the weather is supposed to be wet and chilly, COVID-19 cases are spiking, flights are being canceled, one team is coming from thousands of miles away and the other one has struggled to get fans to come out to its own home games.

There’s a lot working against the Holiday Bowl in terms of the attendance and environment, but it will be interesting to see how things feel once the game kicks off in Petco.

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