Can NIL Be Attributed to UCLA Loss, Lack of Upsets?

The No. 7 seed UCLA Bruins failed to find the required upset victory over the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers in last weekend's Round of 32 matchup in the NCAA Tournament, but they were not the only team to miss their chance. In fact, almost every single team that was an underdog has lost.

The Bruins are just one example of the big question that currently stands: Why haven't there been any upsets in the 2025 NCAA Tournament? That answer can largely be directed towards the changes in college athletics with the mixture of recruiting, the transfer portal, and the biggest factor, money.

After the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the lowest seed that is still alive and advanced to the Sweet 16 is No. 10 Arkansas. They are a fringe underdog considering they hail from the SEC and are coached by national champion, John Calipari.

Even as a No. 10 seed, the Razorbacks would not be considered a "Cinderella Story," and unfortunately, there will not be one this season. It has been a tournament filled with chalk as all four No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds and three No. 4 seeds have all advanced to the Sweet 16.

The Saint Peter's, Loyola Chicago and NC States of the world in recent years were unable to find that memorable upset win this season, keeping their team in the tournament. Many wonder why the upset was never had -- it was big reason as to why is the development of NIL and the transfer portal.

Sideline Sports Network's Jordon Leon wrote a piece last weekend asking if the current state of NIL is ruining March Madness and how the financials are influencing players away from underdog schools that have previously found success in the tournament on an annual basis.

"Historically, upsets have been fueled by experienced mid-major teams taking on freshman-heavy powerhouses. But with NIL in play, elite programs can now retain veteran players by offering them substantial financial incentives," Leon wrote.

"This shift has led to more balanced, experienced rosters at the top, making it increasingly difficult for underdogs to break through."

When No. 15 seed Saint Peter's was able to make a deep run to the Elite Eight in 2022, its roster was filled with veteran, experienced players that had spent previous seasons at upper-level Division I programs.

When NIL and the transfer portal were not the Wild West, those players on Saint Peter's would stay at that school, having the opportunity to shock bigger teams and win multiple games in March. Nowadays, those players are on SEC or Big Ten teams, competing at the top of their conferences.

NIL has allowed for talented players to easily find themselves at bigger schools and compete for a national title as a top-five seed instead of grinding as a long-shot Cinderella team that takes the nation by storm when they win a few games.

College basketball has changed and the tournament is seemingly changing with it. If the rules of NIL and the transfer portal stay the same, prepare for future March Madness years to be filled with the elite programs competing for titles without a strong chance for thrilling upsets.

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