Expert Predictions For Sweet 16 Showdown Between UCLA and Gonzaga
In this story:
The Sweet 16 is about to tip off, and experts across the country are sounding off on which teams they think will advance.
No. 2 seed UCLA men's basketball (31-5, 18-2 Pac-12) is set to face No. 3 seed Gonzaga (30-5, 14-2 WCC) in the second West Regional semifinal of the NCAA tournament on Thursday night. The rematch of the 2006 Sweet 16 and 2021 Final Four is widely accepted as the headlining matchup of the whole weekend, and it is getting the national attention to match the hype.
All Bruins publisher and managing editor Sam Connon initially picked UCLA to beat Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 before losing to Houston in the Final Four, while contributing writer Benjamin Royer also picked them to beat the Bulldogs before losing to Kansas in the Elite Eight.
As for the most notable experts elsewhere in the college basketball world, opinions are spit regarding the Bruins' chances on Thursday.
ESPN
Jeff Borzello: UCLA def. Gonzaga, 75-72
The last time these teams met in the NCAA tournament, Jalen Suggs hit a 3 at the buzzer from just inside half court to send Gonzaga to the 2021 national championship game. This one should come down to the wire, too. For me, the difference is UCLA's defense. While Gonzaga has the best offense in the country, UCLA might be the best at the other end. The Bruins have more size and length to utilize against Drew Timme than TCU did. Meanwhile, I'm not sure Gonzaga will be able to stop Jaime Jaquez Jr., and I like the veteran experience of Tyger Campbell in a game like this.
John Gasaway: UCLA def. Gonzaga, 78-72
It's not often you get a rematch of two storied programs with many of the same leading players from two years ago. (These two teams also played a rather storied tournament game 17 years ago, of course.) The script's going to change this time, however. Instead of Gonzaga winning on a buzzer-beater it will be UCLA notching a close victory. The Bruins are a stronger, more talented and more seasoned version of the TCU team that just played the Bulldogs into the 40th minute. Drew Timme is a marvel but, for the first time in years, opponents have been making 2s against the Zags this season.
Myron Medcalf: UCLA def. Gonzaga, 80-76
Somebody should get Suggs a front-row seat for this one. The rematch! These two teams aren't as talented as those two were, but they're both excellent. This could be the game where the loss of Jaylen Clark, the Pac-12 defensive player of the year who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in the Pac-12 tournament, has a significant impact on the Bruins. But Gonzaga doesn't have the defensive prowess to rattle Campbell and Jaquez Jr. can match anything Timme does. This should be a close, great game.
Sports Illustrated
Kevin Sweeney: Gonzaga def. UCLA
The other Sweet 16 matchup out West is a familiar one in NCAA tournament lore. Gonzaga and UCLA meet in a rematch of two historic games, including the 2021 Final Four matchup won on Jalen Suggs’s buzzer-beating three. Both teams still have familiar faces from that one: Gonzaga is still built around Drew Timme, while Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are still the nucleus of this UCLA team. In the end, UCLA just may not have the firepower to keep up with Gonzaga’s offense with Jaylen Clark sidelined.
FOX Sports
Jason McIntyre: Gonzaga +1.5
Gonzaga has the nation’s longest active win streak (11) and it feels like the wrong team is favored. If you believe in defense, then take UCLA (second in defensive efficiency).
If you’re an offensive guy, Gonzaga is your side (first in offensive efficiency). Tough for me to take the Bruins without knowing the status of David Singleton (ankle) and Adem Bona (only 21 minutes vs. Northwestern). Bona is their best chance to slow Drew Timme because Kenneth Nwuba is always in foul trouble.
Gonzaga is 3-1 against teams left in the Sweet 16; UCLA has played none of them.
Geoff Schwartz: UCLA -2
The best matchup of the eight Sweet 16 games is a rematch of the classic 2021 Final Four matchup between Gonzaga and UCLA.
Will the Bruins get revenge for that close overtime loss? Or will Gonzaga best UCLA again?
The Zags got to the Sweet 16 the same way they always have, and that's with offense. After putting up 84 points against an above-average TCU defense, the Bulldogs are now first in offensive efficiency.
...
Ultimately, UCLA is the better basketball team. I expect the squad's physical style of defense, paired with the Zags' inability to stop opponents from scoring, to lift the Bruins into the Elite Eight.
Bleacher Report
David Kenyon: Gonzaga def. UCLA
Kerry Miller: UCLA def. Gonzaga
Joel Reuter: Gonzaga def. UCLA
One-Sentence Synopsis: If for some reason you can only watch one Sweet 16 game, this unstoppable force/immovable object clash between Gonzaga's offense and UCLA's defense is the one to watch.
UCLA Wins If: There's still enough defense to slow down the Zags. Jaylen Clark is gone. Adem Bona (shoulder) and David Singleton (ankle) are both presumably operating at less than 100 percent. But if the nation's No. 2 rated defense can do its thing against the nation's No. 1 rated offense, the Bruins should win. Since the beginning of 2019-20, Gonzaga is 117-4 when scoring at least 71 points, but 3-8 when falling short of that mark, which includes its two exits from the NCAA tournament.
Gonzaga Wins If: It limits turnovers and gets the transition offense rolling. Point guard play has been a seasonlong question mark for Gonzaga, and UCLA can still rack up steals, even without Clark. But if the Zags keep the giveaways to a minimum and are able to somewhat routinely get buckets in that "seven seconds or less" approach to offense, UCLA could struggle to keep pace.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Under 145.5. Between the three Gonzaga-Saint Mary's games, the average total was 140.3. UCLA's last four opponents have averaged 58.3 points. And in these "the tortoise vs. the hare" sorts of matchups, the tortoise is typically able to control the pace. Should be a great game, but not expecting a repeat of that 93-90 overtime classic from the 2021 Final Four.
OVERALL PICKS: UCLA 5, Gonzaga 4
Follow Connon on Twitter at @SamConnon
Follow All Bruins on Twitter at @FN_AllBruins
Like All Bruins on Facebook at @FN.AllBruins
Subscribe to All Bruins on YouTube
Read more UCLA stories: UCLA Bruins on Sports Illustrated
Read more UCLA men's basketball stories: UCLA Men's Basketball on Sports Illustrated
