Projecting UCLA's Possible March Madness, NCAA Tournament Paths
March Madness is about to begin, and the Bruins are right at the center of all the action.
No. 2 seed UCLA men's basketball (29-5, 18-2 Pac-12) will tip off its NCAA tournament journey Thursday night against No. 15 seed UNC Asheville (27-7, 16-2 Big South). Thanks to the Bruins' regular season conference title and one of the best overall records in the country, the program was able to lock up the No. 2 seed in the West Region, meaning they will be in Sacramento for the first weekend of the tournament and Las Vegas for the second weekend – should they make it that far.
Here is a preview of the teams UCLA could end up facing in the West as it tries to return to the Final Four for the second time in three years and 19th time in program history.
Round of 64
No. 15 seed UNC Asheville Bulldogs (27-7, 16-2 Big South)
NET: 140
KenPom: 146
T-Rank: 176
BPI: 136
AP Poll: N/A
Overall Seed: 62
UNC Asheville picked up an early nonconference road win over UCF back in November, but came up short against Georgia State before getting blown out by Dayton and Arkansas. The Bulldogs are 18-1 since Jan. 1, needing three single-digit wins over conference opponents in the Big South tournament.
Former Tennessee forward Drew Pember is averaging 21.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per game while shooting 37.3% from deep. Fifth-year starting guard Taijon Jones is averaging 15.0 points and 5.2 rebounds with .514/.456/.714 shooting splits.
Although they rank well outside the top 100 in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, UNC Asheville is a slightly better defensive team than it is an offensive team. The Bulldogs ranked seventh in the country with a 39.0% 3-point percentage, but they are one of the 15-most foul-prone teams in the nation.
No. 2 seeds are 138-10 against No. 15 seeds all-time, but a No. 15 seed has won a first-round game in each of the past two NCAA tournaments. No. 15 seed Oral Roberts beat No. 2 seed Ohio State in 2021, while No. 15 seed St. Peter's beat No. 2 seed Kentucky in 2022.
Round of 32
No. 7 seed Northwestern Wildcats (21-11, 12-8 Big Ten)
NET: 41
KenPom: 42
T-Rank: 35
BPI: 41
AP Poll: 37 (Receiving Votes)
Overall Seed: 28
After losing to Auburn and Pitt in the nonconference, Northwestern picked up ranked wins over Michigan State and Indiana. The Wildcats rode a five-game winning streak to a top-25 ranking themselves in late February, but they suffered a three-game losing streak towards the end of the year and went one-and-done in the Big Ten tournament.
Senior guard Boo Buie is the engine of the Wildcats' offense, averaging 17.1 points and 4.5 assists per game while hoisting 6.1 triples a game. Fellow veteran guard Chase Audige is averaging 13.8 points per game on 5.9 3-point attempts per game in addition to his 2.4 steals per game.
The Wildcats rank No. 109 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 13 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Northwestern is among the 10 best schools in the country at not turning over the ball, but they rank No. 343 in field goal percentage.
While No. 2 seeds are 59-26 against No. 7 seeds all-time, they are just 7-8 over the past seven NCAA tournaments.
No. 10 seed Boise State Broncos (24-9, 13-5 Mountain West)
NET: 29
KenPom: 31
T-Rank: 30
BPI: 47
AP Poll: N/A
Overall Seed: 37
Boise State opened the year with crushing losses to South Dakota State and Charlotte, but still managed to spin that into a 10-2 start with wins over Washington State, Loyola Chicago, Colorado and Texas A&M. The Broncos ran through Mountain West play with winning streaks of five and four, but lost to Utah State in the second round of the conference tournament.
Five Broncos average at least 10.1 points and 4.6 rebounds per game, with forward Tyson Degenhart and guard Max Rice setting themselves apart as the team's leading scorers.
The Broncos rank No. 78 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Boise State holds its opponents to 41.3% shooting from the field – which ranks No. 45 in the country – but ranks No. 303 in turnovers per game.
Dating back to 2015, No. 2 seeds are 9-1 against No. 10 seeds.
Sweet 16
No. 3 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-5, 14-2 WCC)
NET: 6
KenPom: 8
T-Rank: 7
BPI: 8
AP Poll: 9
Overall Seed: 10
Gonzaga hasn't dipped below No. 18 in the AP Poll all season, following up a spotty record in a gauntlet nonconference slate with an 11-game winning streak that got their year back on track. Even after suffering a home loss to LMU, the Bulldogs recovered by winning seven in a row, then winning the WCC conference tournament.
All-American big man Drew Timme led the Zags with 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game this year, while guard Julian Strawther put up 15.1 points and 5.9 rebounds a night. Forward Anton Watson and guard Rasir Bolton also averaged double-digit points per game.
The Bulldogs rank No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 76 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Gonzaga boasts the top scoring offense in the country, but its defense ranks No. 235 in 2-point shooting percentage allowed and No. 245 in 3-point shooting percentage allowed.
No. 2 seeds are 35-22 against No. 3 seeds.
UCLA lost to Gonzaga in the 2021 Final Four and in the 2021-2022 regular season.
No. 6 seed TCU Horned Frogs (21-12, 9-9 Big 12)
NET: 28
KenPom: 27
T-Rank: 26
BPI: 28
AP Poll: 22
Overall Seed: 24
TCU started the season 13-1 with wins over Cal, Iowa, Utah, Texas Tech and Baylor, although that one loss came to Northwestern State. The Horned Frogs had an up-and-down conference slate in the deep Big 12, but some of those highs included home wins over Texas and Kansas State and a road win over Kansas.
Guard Mike Miles Jr. leads the Horned Frogs with 17.3 points per game, with his backcourt mate Damion Baugh putting up 12.6 points, 5.8 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game. With center Eddie Lampkin no longer on the roster, athletic forwards Emanuel Miller and JaKobe Coles have been left to man the frontcourt with significantly less size.
The Horned Frogs rank No. 53 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. TCU
No. 2 seeds are 21-2 against No. 6 seeds since 1993, with the last loss coming in 2015.
No. 11 seed Arizona State Sun Devils (22-12, 11-9 Pac-12)
NET: 66
KenPom: 68
T-Rank: 69
BPI: 72
AP Poll: N/A
Overall Seed: 45
A loss to Texas Southern spoiled an 11-1 start to the season for Arizona State, and trading in a four-game winning streak at the start of Pac-12 play for a four-game losing streak immediately after didn't do them any favors either. Arizona State did add big wins over Oregon and Utah, though, and a half-court buzzer beater that sank rival Arizona gave them the signature victory they needed to stay on the safe side of the bubble.
Guards Desmond Cambridge Jr. and DJ Horne have nearly identical stat lines on the season, but it's Cambridge who leads the team with 13.7 points per game. 7-footer Warren Washington is one of five Sun Devils averaging 9.2 or more points per game, and he also leads Arizona State with 6.9 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game.
The Sun Devils rank No. 133 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 28 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Arizona State ranks No. 6 in 2-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 43.8% inside the arc, and they rank No. 31 in blocks per game.
No. 2 seeds are 16-3 against No. 11 seeds all-time, but No. 11 seeds have upset No. 2 seeds twice in the last three tournaments. The Bruins even did so on their way from the First Four to the Final Four in 2021, beating Alabama in overtime.
UCLA went 2-0 against Arizona State this season.
No. 11 seed Nevada Wolfpack (22-10, 12-6 Mountain West)
NET: 37
KenPom: 43
T-Rank: 60
BPI: 71
AP Poll: N/A
Overall Seed: 46
In former UCLA coach Steve Alford's second season at Nevada, the Wolfpack started 14-3. Ranked wins over New Mexico and San Diego State propped up their resume later on in the season, enough to get them into the field of 68 even after losing three in a row to round out the year.
Former Oregon State guard Jarod Lucas led the Wolfpack with 17.3 points per game while shooting 37.9% from deep on 6.4 attempts per game. Kenan Blackshear averaged 14.4 points per game on the wing, and center Will Baker put up 13.5 points and 5.1 rebounds per game himself.
The Wolfpack rank No. 61 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 42 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Nevada ranked No. 20 in limiting turnovers and No. 4 in free throw percentage, but they foul more often than 336 other teams in Division I.
No. 2 seeds are 16-3 against No. 11 seeds all-time, but No. 11 seeds have upset No. 2 seeds twice in the last three tournaments. The Bruins even did so on their way from the First Four to the Final Four in 2021, beating Alabama in overtime.
Elite Eight
No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks (27-7, 13-5 record Big 12)
NET: 9
KenPom: 9
T-Rank: 12
BPI: 10
AP Poll: 4
Overall Seed: 3
Kansas didn't suffer a championship hangover early in the year, riding the momentum of last season's title to a 16-1 start this fall. Big 12 play posed several key challenges, as the Jayhawks lost twice to Texas by 16 and 20 points in the week leading up to Selection Sunday, but they did clinch the regular season conference title thanks to several long winning streaks.
All-American First Team forward Jalen Wilson led the Jayhawks with 20.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Wings Grady Dick, Kevin McCullar and KJ Adams also averaged double-digit points per game – with the former shooting 39.9% from 3 – while guard Dajuan Harris averaged 6.2 assists and 2.1 steals per game.
The Jayhawks rank No. 29 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 7 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Kansas ranked No. 16 in the country in assists and No. 22 in steals, and their opponents' field goal percentage of 41.6% ranked 55th in the nation.
No. 2 seeds are 30-37 against No. 1 seeds all-time.
No. 4 seed UConn Huskies (25-8, 13-7 record Big East)
NET: 8
KenPom: 8
T-Rank: 4
BPI: 6
AP Poll: 10
Overall Seed: 13
UConn started the year hotter than anyone in the country, opening the season 14-0 with key wins over Oregon, Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Florida. The Huskies slipped back a bit as the Big East season churned along, even losing five of six as December turned to January, but a late-season six-game winning streak got them back on track.
Big man Adama Sanogo led the way with 17.2 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, with guard Jordan Hawkins getting the job done on the perimeter with 15.9 points per game while shooting 37.3% on 7.6 3-point attempts per game.
The Huskies rank No. 6 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 18 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. UConn ranked No. 6 in offensive rebounds per game and No. 18 in blocks per game, and their opponents shot just 30.2% from beyond the arc, which ranked No. 19 in the nation.
No. 2 seeds are 4-4 against No. 4 in their last eight matchups.
No. 5 seed Saint Mary's Gaels (26-7, 14-2 WCC)
NET: 11
KenPom: 11
T-Rank: 9
BPI: 18
AP Poll: 19
Overall Seed: 19
Saint Mary's was looking like the best team in the West Coast Conference for much of the year, despite losing three in a row early on to Washington, New Mexico and Houston. The Gaels beat Gonzaga in overtime on Feb. 4 to improve to 21-4, although they did lose to the Bulldogs in the regular season finale and WCC tournament finals.
Guards Logan Johnson and Aidan Mahaney led the Gaels with 14.7 and 14.5 points per game, respectively, with the former setting himself apart as the better passer and rebounder but the latter shooting a superior 41.2% on 5.4 3-point attempts per game. Australian guard Alex Ducas averaged 12.5 points per game while shooting 41.8% from deep on 6.1 attempts a night, and 6-foot-10 big man Mitchell Saxen averaged 11.6 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game.
The Gaels rank No. 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 9 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Saint Mary's is among the top-40 teams in the country in limiting turnovers, and they rank No. 50 in field goal percentage allowed.
No. 2 seeds are only 1-5 against No. 5 seeds in their last six matchups.
UCLA beat Saint Mary's in the Round of 32 last season.
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