UCLA Strength of Schedule Skyrockets as Bowl Game Hopes Dwindle

The Bruins' chances of reaching six games are as close to zero as possible with three gams remaining.

Nov 8, 2025; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Nico Iamaleava (9) is sacked by Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Keona Davis (97) during the second half at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Saturday's 28-21 loss to Nebraska wasn't just another brutal loss for the UCLA Bruins (3-6, 3-3 Big Ten), it may have just been the final nail in the coffin on an attempted turnaround from a 0-4 start.

Starting the season with four-straight losses doesn't net a team the greatest chances at making a bowl game, but interim coach Tim Skipper immediately ripped off three wins and boosted the hope in the locker room. UCLA's chances are all but zero after Saturday's loss.

The path to three wins with three games remaining is daunting for the Bruins. According to ESPN's FPI, UCLA has the strongest remaining strength of schedule in college football, up two spots from where it ranked going into the Nebraska game.

The Bruins are the 68th-ranked team in the FPI. The index gives them the 90th-ranked game control rating, which measures the chance that the average top 25 team would control a game the way UCLA did. UCLA is also near the bottom of the sport in average in-game win probability, sitting 122nd in the country.

Nov 8, 2025; Pasadena, California, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule meets with UCLA Bruins interim head coach Tim Skipper following the game at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The index gives the Bruins a 0.1% chance of winning out in the last three games and, hence, a 0.1% chacne to make a bowl game.

Let's take a look at UCLA's remaining schedule and how those teams have fared.

11/15 - (1) Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) looks at the video board during the NCAA football game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. on Nov. 8, 2025. Ohio State won 34-10. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The outright No. 1 team in the country continued on its dominant path by going on the road and handling Purdue, 34-10. Julian Sayin further bolstered his Heisman bid by throwing for 303 yards and a touchdown. Sayin's only touchdown was to Jeremiah Smith, who finished with 10 catches for 137 yards.

Ohio State plays host to UCLA in Columbus this week, and UCLA's chances of pulling off an upset similar to the one it had against No. 7 Penn State are about as slim as its chances at making a bowl game -- not good.

ESPN Analytics gives the Bruins a 1.7% chance as beating the Buckeyes. Much like the entirety of the season, the odds are heavily against UCLA.

11/22 - Washington Huskies

Nov 8, 2025; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (2) scrambles under pressure from Wisconsin Badgers linebacker Sebastian Cheeks (15) during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Washington partook in one of the biggest upsets of the week. The then-23rd-ranked Huskies couldn't handle Wisconsin's defense as the Badgers, losers of six straight, upset Washington, 13-10, fresh of its first Top 25 ranking of the season.

Huskies coach Jedd Fisch, who has been a name synonymous with those linked to UCLA's coaching vacancy, has a slightly hotter seat than he did the week before. If there was ever a game for the Bruins to win during this final stretch of the season, it'd be against Washington on Saturday, Nov. 22.

ESPN Analytics gives the Bruins a 25.1% chance to win this Week 13 matchup. It's one of UCLA's best odds of the season, considering how everything has played out.

11/29 - (17) USC Trojans

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans running back King Miller (30) runs the ball against Northwestern Wildcats defensive back Robert Fitzgerald (6) and defensive back Garner Wallace (18) during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The dreaded crosstown rivals had another great week, much to the chagrin of Bruins fans. USC played on Friday night and cruised past Northwestern, 38-17, behind a stellar night from wide receiver Makai Lemon. The win bumped the Trojans up three spots in the AP Top 25 to No. 17.

For just a small frame of the season, there was a decent chance at UCLA's quest for bowl game eligibility coming down to its final game of the season against Southern California. Lincoln Riley's squad may still have something to play for come Week 14, but the same may not be said for the Bruins.

ESPN Analytics gives UCLA a 6.0% chance to win the Nov. 29 matchup. Who knows who will be suiting up for the Bruins come rivalry week.

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