Three Last Minute UConn vs. Notre Dame Predictions

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A Top 25 showdown awaits on MLK Day as the No. 1 UConn Huskies are set to do battle with No. 23 Notre Dame.
Despite both teams being ranked, ESPN Analytics gives UConn a 95.9% chance to win this game. They enter as 29.5 point favorites, an incredibly large number knowing the Fighting Irish are supposed to be a Top 25 team in the nation.
That said, Notre Dame is coming off a tough loss to No. 9 Louisville, 79-66. There's a strong possibility the Fighting Irish leave the AP poll by the end of the week, if they aren't removed prior to this game against the Huskies.
Regardless, UConn knows what they need to do in order to take care of business, it's just a matter of executing.
1. Notre Dame's Guards Are Held In Check
Two years ago, freshman Hannah Hidalgo walked into Gampel Pavilion and tore the Huskies apart.
— H ☘️ (@GrandTheftDalgo) January 18, 2026
Tomorrow, she returns to Storrs to face #1 UConn 🍿
pic.twitter.com/wN7APB7BZg
While no team wants to get into a shootout with the Huskies, Notre Dame has a trio of guards ready to put up a fight. Led by junior Hannah Hidalgo with her 25.0 points per game average, Hidalgo is this team's biggest hope to securing the upset.
At the end of the day, UConn's defense is no joke. In their last 10 games, they've allowed just 49.8 points per game while Notre Dame's offense is averaging 86.3. Something has to give in Storrs, and it likely won't be the Huskies defense.
2. Home Advantage Is Everything
It's a bit alarming seeing the Fighting Irish enter this game with a 2-3 record on the road. Having played 17 games this season, only six of them were away from home, one of which being a neutral site game against Michigan. To no surprise, they lost that one as well.
UConn leads the Big East with 18.3 fast break points per game and they're going to use every bit of that home crowd to leverage Notre Dame's turnovers. To make matters worse, the Fighting Irish have dropped their last two road games to unranked opponents.
3. Huskies Ball Movements Will Be Far Too Much For ND To Handle
GAMEDAY
— UConn Women’s Basketball (@UConnWBB) January 19, 2026
🆚 #23 Notre Dame
📍 Gampel Pavilion
⏰ 5 PM
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/mLmay3DfEu
This one speaks for itself as UConn is averaging nearly 10 more assists per game than the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame enters this game averaging 15.5 assists per game which is a huge step down from the Huskies 24.3.
Ball movement is key, and that's exactly how UConn keeps their field goal percentage (52.4%) so high. This team doesn't take many bad shots, and they're not afraid to make an extra pass, or two, in order to make it happen.
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Jordon Lawrenz is a writer for On SI, part of the Sports Illustrated Network. Jordon is an accomplished writer for NFL, MLB, and college football/basketball. He contributes to PFSN’s and Heavy’s NFL coverage. Having graduated from the University of Wisconsin - Green Bay with a Sports Communication and Journalism degree, Jordon fully embraced the sports writing lifestyle upon his relocation to Florida.