How Joe Lunardi Views North Carolina and ACC

The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the most polarizing teams in the country, as the talent and roster construction are clearly there, but at times, the production on the floor is underwhelming based on what head coach Hubert Davis has at his disposal.

After releasing his latest bracket projections, ESPN's college basketball bracketologist Joe Lunardi provided a breakdown of each conference.

Lunardi's Thoughts on the ACC

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) with the ball as North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

"In a reversal of fortune, the ACC might be deeper than it is great," Lunardi said. "It's not quite Duke and a cast of thousands, but it's starting to look that way with the Blue Devils in position to run away with the regular-season standings."

"On paper, Clemson and Virginia are within striking distance of first-place Duke, but they have to play the Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor," Lunardi continued. "And even if Jon Scheyer's group splits its series with North Carolina, it's hard to see a way the Blue Devils don't win the league and an NCAA tournament No. 1 seed."

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) reacts with guard Derek Dixon (3) in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

While the conference seems to be Duke's to lose, Lunardi is impressed by the depth of the conference and what the middle teams in the ACC have to offer.

"The real story in the ACC however is its very deep middle," Lunardi said. "Expect double (or more!) the number of NCAA bids from a year ago -- and league history suggests that will result in a surprise Sweet 16 team or two."

What Group Does Lunardi Associate North Carolina with?

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) and bench react after hitting the game winning shot in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Within each conference assessment, Lunardi divides the teams into three categories including, "Final Four Contenders", "Likely Tournament Teams", and "Possible Tournament Teams". Lunardi's evaluation of the ACC is pretty straightforward, as he has Duke as the only final four contender, while North Carolina is grouped in with Virginia, Louisville, Clemson, North Carolina State, and SMU as likely tournament teams.

While the Tar Heels are not regarded in the same breath as the Blue Devils this season, Lunardi did acknowledge that North Carolina could make a run to the final four, depending on the circumstances.

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) with the ball as North Carolina Tar Heels forward Jonathan Powell (11) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

"After several disappointing Selection Sundays, the ACC has to feel good about the number of programs here," Lunardi stated. "The top three on this list could even make the Final Four if everything breaks right. The rest are capable of winning multiple games and playing into the second weekend."

The Tar Heels may not be viewed as a legitimate title contender, but that perspective may change after the win over Duke on Saturday night.

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