3 Matchups That Could Ultimately Decide UNC Football Season

A pivotal season for the North Carolina Tar Heels is almost upon us. With just a few months left until Bill Belichick's Tar Heels kick off the college football regular season in Dublin, Ireland, the anticipation is building for the program with hopes of at least reaching a bowl game, something that they were four total points from reaching last year.

However, this is a make-or-break season for Belichick and North Carolina. If not enough wins are coming through, it might be time to hit the reset button. I've chosen three games that could decide the season for Chapel Hill, and they aren't the premier ones that many anticipate to be.

Week 0 — vs. TCU Horned Frogs (Dublin)

Belichick Dykes — Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick with TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes after the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

A win to start the season is an absolute must for Belichick & Co. Their blowout defeat in front of a national audience on Labor Day remains stuck in the minds of fans across the country and abroad. If North Carolina wants to get the bad taste from last year out of its mouth, beating TCU in Dublin in front of the many fans with guinusses in their hands is the priority before everything else.

Beating the Horned Frogs would bolster confidence for the Tar Heels heading into the regular season, especially when having to face Miami and Notre Dame in the first half of the campaign. A better showing in front of a national audience to kick off the college football season is a good way to build that confidence ahead of those matchups.

Week 7 — at Duke Blue Devils

Shipp UNC — Nov 22, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Jordan Shipp (1) celebrates after a touchdown during the second half at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

Both teams have something to prove this upcoming season. The Tar Heels must show they were indeed just a team a handful of points away from making a bowl game with a better roster this year, while the Blue Devils must overcome the offseason losses that have hampered them on both sides of the ball. That's not to mention that neither of these teams like each other at all, fanbases included.

No, this isn't the same rivalry that takes over the college basketball world to bookend the last two months of the regular season. However, a North Carolina victory at Wallace Wade Stadium against the defending ACC champions would be a huge win for Belichick's squad in their second season. It's a key reason why I don't have the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish on this list.

Week 10 — at UConn Huskies

Belichick UNC — Dec 14, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head football coach Bill Belichick during halftime at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

I know, you're probably thinking to yourself, "Really, not the Wolfpack?" I think Belichick and the Tar Heels know well that specific game is a must-win any season, no matter the record. UConn is a growing program that is inching toward 10-wins under Jim Mora, and playing there late in the season is no easy task for any program, as the Huskies haven't lost at home since October 2024.

The Tar Heels at this point are what they are, which could be good or bad, and for the sake of this article, I'm going to say things are going well for the program by Week 10. The Huskies could be undefeated at home and potentially a six-to-seven-win team by this point of the year. A win at Pratt & Whitney Stadium would be a big accomplishment heading into the final few games of the season.

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