Analyzing North Carolina's Best Case Scenarios for 2026

The offseason is a perfect time for football fans to build delusions toward their favorite franchise or programs. That is especially true for North Carolina Tar Heels faithful, who are hoping for some sort of improvement in head coach Bill Belichick's second season.

The outcomes and range of possibilities for Chapel Hill could be limitless if you want to get institutionally delusional or remain sane with rational thinking and a more grounded takeaway for the upcoming season. With that said, let's get delusional and look at the best-case scenarios for North Carolina in 2026.

Outcome No. 1 — Shocking the World by Winning the ACC Championship

UNC football coach Bill Belichick during a press conference ahead of the Tar Heels' first spring practice on Tuesday, March 24, 2026. | Rodd Baxley/The Fayetteville Observer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This is a pipedream scenario, but imagine it for a moment. In this outcome, North Carolina reaches the playoffs for the first time in program history in Belichick's second season as Bobby Petrino's offense blasts off as a top-20 unit in the sport under the hypothetical sensational play of true freshman Travis Burgess, while standout defenders at all three levels of the defense make enough plays to create takeaways.

This would, of course, be a 10-plus win season for North Carolina, establishing one of the biggest turnarounds in the country, while Belichick etches his name in college football history for the right reasons as he continues to establish an already superb resume and legacy.

Outcome No. 2 — Four-Win Turnaround and a Strong Conference Record

Belichick UN — Oct 4, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney with North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick before the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

I don't think this outcome is out of the realm of possibility, though this is less of a delusion than some may think. This is a more realistic "best-case" for Belichick's Tar Heels, and it would be an immense step forward, one way or another.

Eight wins put North Carolina in a stronger bowl game in the winter, while at least five or six conference wins put them high in the finishing order of the ACC. I would imagine there is an upset over Clemson, Notre Dame, or Miami amongst those conference victories, including a must-needed triumph over football arch-rival N.C. State. Belichick would have the Tar Heels on the right track for 2027, with the potential to be a favorite to win the ACC while luring top transfer recruits.

Outcome No. 3 — Gradual Improvement With Much More To Build on for 2027 and Beyond

Nov 29, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick addresses the media after the second half of the game against NC State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

This is more of the expectation for North Carolina this upcoming season: a gradual improvement from a season ago, finishing close games, and securing a bowl game appearance. Chapel Hill will see a more balanced offense, with an emphasis on a strong run game and heavier personnel packages and tight end usage based on the ceiling and talent within that room.

The quarterback situation remains uncertain, but there are established cornerstones within the program that can help lead to slightly more success in 2026. A .500 or 7-5 record and a bowl game should be the expectation for the Tar Heels this year.

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