Best (and Worst) Case Scenarios for 2026 UNC Football Offense

The North Carolina Tar Heels' offense will be the face of improvement or dissatisfaction for their upcoming season.

Head coach Bill Belichick is under pressure to turn the Tar Heels around this offseason, and made moves in the transfer portal and to his coaching staff, hiring veteran coach Bobby Petrino to be in charge of the offense. Vast improvement is expected from North Carolina's offense in 2026 because of these additions, and it could lead to a great turnaround for a program that was left in the dust after a dramatic and ugly first year of the Belichick era.

UNC coach Bill Belichick during a press conference on Nov. 19, 2025, inside the Kenan Football Center. | Rodd Baxley/The Fayetteville Observer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The highs and lows can be seen for this offense in Chapel Hill, with no surprises in either direction. Let's look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Tar Heels' offense in 2026.

Best-Case Scenario — Petrino's Offense Finishes Top-50 in Scoring

Nov 29, 2025; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks interim head coach Bobby Petrino prior to a game against the Missouri Tigers at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Last season, the Tar Heels were 118th in the FBS in scoring at 19.2 points per game. That is unacceptable in any facet, and Belichick knew this with his changes and additions through the transfer portal. Petrino may be a retread, but he brings experience and an offensive system that works with the unit's personnel strengths.

If North Carolina were to average 25 points per game, that would be a win, but it would still rank in the bottom half of all FBS teams from last season. The best-case scenario for Petrino's offense is crossing the Top-50 threshold, which would've been good enough for about 29.5 points per game. Fun fact: Petrino's unit at Arkansas last season ranked 23rd in points per game at 32.9; it isn't unrealistic for North Carolina to get close to that average.

Petrino UNC — Nov 29, 2025; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks interim head coach Bobby Petrino prior to a game against the Missouri Tigers at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

In this scenario, the quarterback situation is stabilized with an ample run game, quality pass-catchers at wide receiver and tight end, and efficient blocking in all phases from the offensive line. For this, I'm sticking with my prediction that Travis Burgess finds his way to start in Dublin as a true freshman at quarterback.

Worst-Case Scenario — Chemistry Remains an Issue

Chemistry was the biggest issue for the Tar Heels last season on all fronts, including the offense. No one seemed to be on the same page, nor were the basic fundamentals. That should be better with more established talent and coaching additions. However, what if it doesn't get any better?

Having chemistry problems after another full offseason with new acquisitions to the staff and roster seems more of an internal issue than a fixable one, and that rests on Belichick's shoulders. Chemistry concerns could arise from a potential quarterback carousel, which the Tar Heels hope to avoid as much as possible, and it could be the reason why the Tar Heels falter again despite potentially great defensive play.

Belichick UNC — Sep 20, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick walks into the field before the game against the UCF Knights at the Bounce House Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

If those issues do persist, it will likely lead to Belichick's dismissal in what would be one of the worst hirings in the transfer portal era and the biggest blunder by Tar Heels athletics in recent memory—maybe ever.

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