UNC Confidence Meter: How I'm Feeling Heading Into Week 6

Winning the first two games of the season gave off the impression that the North Carolina Tar Heels were turning the corner under head coach Bill Belichick.

However, that optimism quickly evaporated, as the Tar Heels lost two consecutive games to legitimate competition. North Carolina enters Week 6 facing the No. 25-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers, who are undefeated. That said, here are my confidence levels for the Tar Heels in multiple areas of this contest.

Coaching: 6/10

University of North Carolina Head Coach Bill Belichick during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. Saturday, September 19, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Considering the parameters Belichick has had to operate under in recent weeks, with his son, Steve Belichick, and former general manager, Michael Lombardi, each resigning from their respective positions following an investigation, the Tar Heels have played at a competent level, despite losing the last two games.

The 74-year-old head coach has taken over defensive play-calling duties, and that unit has continued to perform at a solid level. Allowing an average of 32.5 points over the last two games would say otherwise, but considering the offense has struggled to sustain drives, that output comes with a slight asterisk. Nevertheless, my confidence in Belichick and Bobby Petrino is at a respectable level.

Offense: 7/10

Sep 19, 2026; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; University of North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Miles O'Neill (8) hands the ball off to University of North Carolina Tar Heels running back Benjamin Hall (7) late in the fourth quarter against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ashley Tumlin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Considering North Carolina was facing the No. 3-ranked team in the country last week - Notre Dame - it would be unfair to hold that result against the Tar Heels. That said, the offense still deserves criticism.

Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. struggled throughout the game, including two first-half interceptions that put North Carolina in a hole. To the Tar Heels' credit, they recovered well and came within one point in the third quarter. Fast forward to this week, and this offense is in a much better spot to succeed. I don't expect Petrino to be as reliant on the passing attack; Pittsburgh is significantly hampered at quarterback.

This means that the Tar Heels should have more opportunities to operate at a comfortable pace and lean on the rushing attack. If the game unfolds this way, North Carolina's offense should succeed at a much higher level. It all starts with Edwards Jr. If he keeps the offense on schedule and plays a complete game, the Tar Heels have a legitimate chance of leaving Week 6 with a win.

Defense: 8/10

Aug 29, 2026; Dublin, Co. Dublin, IRL; North Carolina Tar Heels defensive lineman Xavier Lewis (90) against the TCU Horned Frogs in the second half at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Laszlo Geczo-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We mentioned this earlier, but Pittsburgh starting quarterback Mason Heintschel suffered a season-ending torn ACL last week in the win over Virginia Tech. The Panthers will turn to fifth-year signal caller Holden Geriner, who has fewer than 50 career pass attempts.

It's the perfect storm for a pass rush capable of imposing its will in the trenches. This is the second time this season North Carolina will be facing a backup quarterback making their first career start. However, the Tar Heels couldn't capitalize on those circumstances against Clemson with Tait Reynolds. Melkart Abou Jaoude missed that game. The 2025 ACC sack leader was not on the injury report this week, which is monumental.

Now, the defensive line could enter this game undermanned, with Jaylen Harvey listed as doubtful and Isaiah Johnson listed as questionable. If those two are limited or out, North Carolina's pass rush will suffer. Nonetheless, facing a backup quarterback is a favorable development for this defense.

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