USC's NCAA Tournament Chances As College Basketball Heats Up

The USC Trojans missed a golden opportunity to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume with a 73-72 road loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes. What is the Trojans current tournament projection following the crushing loss to Iowa?

Mar 12, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; USC Trojans head coach Eric Musselman in the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Entering their second season under coach Eric Musselman, the USC Trojans have the goal of reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years. The 2025-26 college basketball season has been a swing of highs and lows for the Trojans. 

After getting off to an 11-1 start, which included winning the Maui Invitational, USC has struggled to find momentum in conference play. Following their heartbreaking 73-72 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes, the Trojans currently post a 15-6 overall record and are 4-6 in conference play. 

Jan 13, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Maryland Terrapins in the first half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC Trojans Current NCAA Tournament Chances

Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz (14) and USC guard Jerry Easter II (8) fight for a loose ball during a basketball game Jan. 28, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With plenty of opportunities in front of them to strengthen their tournament resume, the Trojans are currently projected to be a bubble team, according to On3’s James Fletcher III's latest bracketology projections. Other bubble teams in the Big Ten, according to On3, include the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes, UCLA Bruins, and Wisconsin Badgers.  

USC is projected to miss the NCAA Tournament as one of the first four out teams, along with Virginia Tech, TCU, and LSU. In addition to their upcoming home matchup against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday, the Trojans will face two projected bubble teams in their next four games. 

MORE: Most Impactful Early Enrollee Recruit for USC Trojans

MORE: Sam Darnold Makes History in Seattle's NFC Championship Win

MORE: USC's Makai Lemon Paired With Underrated NFL Quarterback In Recent Mock Draft 

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER HERE!  

USC will play Indiana at home on Feb. 3 and Ohio State in Columbus on Feb. 11. With their tournament hopes in the balance, the Trojans must earn a win in both games to remain comfortably in the hunt. It is also crucial that the Trojans don’t slip up at home against Rutgers or on the road against Penn State, two games that USC should be favored to win.

The Trojans recent 74-68 loss to the Northwestern Wildcats at the Galen Center proved to be a crushing blow to the Trojans tournament resume, as before that loss, the Wildcats had yet to win a game in Big Ten play. 

USC's Crushing Road Loss vs. Iowa

Jan 28, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Kam Woods (13) reaches for the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first half at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Trailing by as many as 17 points in the second half against the Hawkeyes, USC guard and midseason transfer addition from Robert Morris, Kam Woods, fueled the Trojans' comeback that fell one point short, scoring 19 straight points. 

Woods’ game-winning three-pointer attempt as time expired fell short, as he finished the game with a career-high 33 points, four steals, three assists, and three rebounds on 12-of-17 shooting from the field. Woods’ ability to continue to have success for the Trojans is critical for USC moving forward to reach the tournament, as freshman guard Alijah Arenas is just starting to progress in his third career game. 

USC’s backcourt has dealt with two crushing injuries this season involving guards Rodney Rice and Amarion Dickerson, which have affected the Trojans scoring. Following the loss to the Hawkeyes, USC returns home to Los Angeles to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at the Galen Center on Saturday. The tipoff between the Trojans and Scarlet Knights is scheduled for 4 p.m. PT with the game broadcast on Peacock.