USC's NCAA Tournament Projection Updated Amid Big Ten Road Struggles

Following two consecutive blowout road losses to begin the 2026 calendar year, the USC Trojans coach Eric Musselman and his team's NCAA Tournament seed projections have taken a major hit.

USC head coach Eric Musselman reacts to a play against Michigan during the first half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Friday, Jan. 2, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The USC Trojans men's basketball team's NCAA Tournament project has taken a major hit following their two consecutive blowout road losses to the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines and No. 12 Michigan State Spartans. According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections, the Trojans are currently projected as a No. 8 seed in the West Region. Lunardi has the Trojans playing the St. John’s Red Storm in a first-round matchup in San Diego. 

USC’s current No. 8 seed projection is a two-seed drop from Lunardi's last bracketology projections, which were before the Trojans' consecutive road losses. USC currently posts a 12-3 record, including a 1-3 standing in Big Ten play ahead of the final matchup of their three-game road trip against the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Friday night. 

Jan 5, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman sends in a play against the Michigan State Spartans during the first half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

The top four seeds projected to be in the West Region, along with the Trojans, include the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats, No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs, No. 10 Nebraska Cornhuskers, and the No. 15 Arkansas Razorbacks.

How USC Can Improve From Recent Struggles

Jan 2, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman talks to forward Chad Baker-Mazara (4) in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

While USC’s last two road losses against Michigan and Michigan State have concerned Trojans fans, it's too early to hit the panic button on the season. USC has shown great improvement in its second season under coach Eric Musselman, and despite consecutive losses against arguably two of the top teams in the Big Ten, the Trojans are still in great shape to reach their goal of making the NCAA Tournament. 

Beating Minnesota to close out their three-game Midwest road trip to begin the 2026 calendar year would give the Trojans a major confidence boost heading back to Los Angeles, something that Musselman’s team desperately needs amid their recent struggles and devastating injuries. 

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The injuries to USC guards Rodney Rice and Amarion Dickerson have proved to be a major blow to the Trojans' depth in the backcourt. To solve those backcourt issues, the Trojans are hoping that talented freshman guard Alijah Arenas can make his USC debut in mid-January. Alijah, the son of former NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas, comes to USC with great potential as a five-star guard, per 247Sports. 

Dec 21, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) warms up prior to the game against the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

While he’s only scored two points in his first three games for the Trojans, Robert Morris transfer guard Kam Woods, whom USC added as a midseason addition to solve their backcourt depth, will get more comfortable in his new role as the season progresses. 

Players That Need To Step Up For Trojans Moving Forward

Jan 2, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Jordan Marsh (7) dribbles against the Michigan Wolverines at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

USC guards Jordan Marsh and Jerry Easter also look to continue to step up for the Trojans in the backcourt as Big Ten play heats up in January and February. While the Trojans may feel comfortable with a 12-3 record, they must put together quality wins in conference play, or else their hopes of making the NCAA Tournament could come crashing down.

The Trojans can start that trend of wins by beating Minnesota on Friday night to close out their road trip. The tip-off between the Trojans and Golden Gophers from Williams Arena in Minneapolis, Minnesota, is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. PT with the game broadcast on the Big Ten Network.