USC's NCAA Tournament Projection Updated Following Loss to Oregon

The USC Trojans suffered a devastating 71-70 loss to the Oregon Ducks on Saturday at the Galen Center. How did USC's loss to the Ducks impact the Trojans' NCAA Tournament chances?

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Oregon Ducks in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans suffered a devastating 71-70 loss at home to the Oregon Ducks on Saturday at the Galen Center. Despite USC guard Chad Baker-Mazara scoring 21 points in his first game back after suffering a knee sprain, the Ducks finished strong, going on a 7-0 run in the last minute to defeat the Trojans and hand coach Eric Musselman’s group a heartbreaking third straight loss.

Saturday’s loss to the Ducks could have massive consequences moving forward for the Trojans in terms of their chances of making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three seasons. With the loss, the Trojans now post an 18-9 overall record and are 7-9 in Big Ten play. 

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Oregon Ducks in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Having a losing record in conference play and suffering defeats against struggling teams at home, including Washington, Northwestern, and Oregon, does not help the Trojans case to earn a spot in the tournament. With four games remaining on the Trojans regular season schedule, where are the Trojans on the tournament bubble? 

USC Trojans NCAA Tournament Projection

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans center Gabe Dynes (45) reacts at the end of the game against the Oregon Ducks at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology projections, the Trojans are in the first four out following their loss to the Ducks. Other teams in the first four out include the New Mexico Lobos, California Golden Bears, and Virginia Tech Hokies. 

For the Trojans to get back in the conversation of making March Madness, winning a majority of their games to finish the regular season, along with a game or two in the Big Ten tournament, will benefit USC's chances. The results of the Trojans two upcoming matchups against their arch-rival, the UCLA Bruins, will be extremely pivotal to their tournament hopes. 

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The UCLA Bruins, another Big Ten team on the bubble, earned a statement buzzer-beater 95-94 overtime win over the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini. UCLA guard Donovan Dent saved the Bruins season with the game-winning shot in overtime.

How USC Can Get Back in Tournament Consideration

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oregon Ducks forward Sean Stewart (13) dribbles the ball against Oregon Ducks guard Jamari Phillips (24) in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC is set to face its first meeting of the season on the road against the Bruins on Tuesday at the Pauley Pavilion, a game in which the Trojans’ season could essentially be on the line. USC will also close out the regular season against UCLA on March 7. 

In addition to their two games against the Bruins, USC is also scheduled to play at home against the No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers and on the road against the Washington Huskies. A win over a top-ten Nebraska team is a victory that could help the Trojans get back on track to make the tournament, while they’ll also look to avenge their 84-76 home loss to the Huskies back on Dec. 6. 

If the Trojans' three-game losing streak has proved anything, it's that outside of their blowout loss to Illinois, USC has struggled to close out games. Entering a four-game stretch where all four games will define the Trojans season, USC must capitalize down the stretch, especially in tight matchups.