Where USC Stands in Updated NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection

The USC Trojans have a 14-4 overall record and a 3-4 mark in Big Ten play so far this season. According to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, the Trojans are one one of the last four teams receiving byes.

USC on Right Side of Bubble

USC Trojans Eric Musselman NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection Bracketology Joe Lunardi Alijah Arenas Freshman Debut Basketbal — Jan 2, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman talks to forward Chad Baker-Mazara (4) in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Trojans are a 10 seed in Luanrdi’s most recent projected field, putting them on the bubble. Here is USC’s resume when it comes to their record against Quad 1, 2, 3, and 4 opponents. Their current NET ranking is 50.

Q1: 1-3
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 3-0

USC has been able to avoid a disastrous loss. Their worst one to this point was to the Washington Huskies, which is currently considered a “Quad 2” loss. USC’s other three losses were all in “Quad 1” and to teams ranked top 12 in the NET; the Michigan Wolverines, Purdue Boilermakers, and Michigan State Spartans.

USC’s best win of the season was their neutral site victory over the Seton Hall Pirates. This is the Trojans’ lone “Quad 1” win.

Up next for the Trojans its a home game against the Northwestern Wildcats on Wednesday, Jan. 21.

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Can USC Get Back to NCAA Tournament?

The USC Trojans have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the past two seasons. They weren’t particularly close to making it in either. In 2023-24, USC went 15-18. That offseason, coach Andy Enfield left to become the coach of the SMU Mustangs. With that, USC needed a new leader of the program. They hired former Arkansas Razorbacks coach Eric Musselman.

Although they did slightly improve, it was a rough first year for Musselman in Los Angeles in the 2024-25 season. USC finished with a 17-18 overall record. They participated in the inaugural College Basketball Crown postseason tournament in Las Vegas and lost in the quarterfinals to the Villanova Wildcats.

USC Overcoming Injuries

USC has had to overcome multiple injuries this season. Their top scoring option, guard Rodney Rice is out for the season with a shoulder injury. He averaged a team-high 20.3 points before getting season ending surgery.

Before the season even started, USC's highest rated incoming recruit Alijah Arenas suffered a torn meniscus. He has yet to play this season, but looks to be in line for his debut in the coming days.

Alijah Arenas' USC Debut

According to an Arenas' social media activity, his first collegiate game will be on Wednesday against Northwestern. The Galen Center should have an extra jolt of energy with the freshman phenom finally takes the floor.

USC has 13 more games left in the regular season before the Big Ten tournament tips off in March. If USC can string together a few more victories, they will be putting themselves in a great position to make the NCAA Tournament as the home stretch of the season approaches.