USC's Updated NCAA Tournament Odds Take Hit After Loss to Illinois

The USC Trojans dropped their second straight game in a 101-65 loss to the Illinois Fighting Illini. USC is right on the NCAA Tournament bubble and will have to finish the regular season strong to feel good about their chances on Selection Sunday.

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman looks on from the bench during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans are right on the bubble when it comes to the 2026 NCAA Tournament. USC has lost their past two games to the Ohio State Buckeyes and Illinois Fighting Illinois to drop to 18-8 on the season. This has hampered their odds to make the tournament.

USC’s NCAA Tournament Odds

Feb 18, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman and guard Alijah Arenas (0) react against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the first half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the USC Trojans have odds of +150 to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament. USC has an overall record of 18-8 this season with a mark of 7-8 in Big Ten conference play. Here is their breakdown of quad 1, 2, 3, and 4 games. 

Quad 1: 1-6
Quad 2: 8-1
Quad 3: 5-1
Quad 4: 3-0

The Trojans’ best win and lone quad 1 victory is a road win over the Wisconsin Badgers. Their worst loss was a quad 3 defeat at the hands of the Northwestern Wildcats in the Galen Center. According to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, USC is the last team in the projected NCAA Tournament as of now. 

This would put the Trojans in the “First Four” in Dayton to tip-off the tournament. Lunardi’s projection has USC slated to face the Missouri Tigers of the SEC, with the winner earning the No. 11 seed in the East region and a first round date with the No. 6 seeded Louisville Cardinals of the ACC. 

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Trojans Entering Home Stretch  

Feb 11, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; USC Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) dribbles the ball as Ohio State Buckeyes forward Amare Bynum (1) defends during the first half at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

USC has not made the NCAA Tournament since the 2022-23 season. This was before current USC coach Eric Musselman was even in Los Angeles and when he was the coach for the Arkansas Razorbacks. In 2023-24 and 2024-25, USC wasn’t close to the bubble as they finished each season below .500. 2025-26 has been a step in the right direction.

The Trojans have five more games left in the regular season and then they will gear up for the Big Ten tournament. They have quad 2 and quad 1 opportunities when they face the UCLA Bruins twice and Nebraska Cornhuskers once to end the regular season. UCLA is among the “last four in” teams according to Lunardi so USC could get a huge boost if they can win those two games. 

Feb 18, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans forward Ezra Ausar (2) reacts against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the first half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Nebraska is safely in the tournament and currently the No. 9 ranked team in the country per the AP Top 25 poll. USC picking them off at the Galen Center would be a quad 1 victory. 

USC’s next game is at home game against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday, Feb. 21. Oregon has struggled mightily this season and has a record of 9-17. This will be a quad 3 game and one USC cannot afford to lose. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.