USC Trojans Updated NCAA Tournament Projection As Race Heats Up

Ahead of a high-stakes road matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes, the USC Trojans look to continue to strengthen their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. What is the Trojans tournament projection ahead of their road matchup against Ohio State?

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman looks on from the bench during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Riding a three-game winning streak, the USC Trojans have had an impressive second season under coach Eric Musselman. Following the Trojans 77-75 comeback win over the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sunday, the Trojans currently post an 18-6 overall record and are 7-6 in Big Ten play, heading into another road test against the Ohio State Buckeyes.

USC's 18 wins this season surpass their win total from last season, when they finished 17-18 overall. Entering their matchup against Ohio State and with seven games remaining in the regular season, the Trojans are in good shape to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years.

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) attempts a three-point shot as Penn State Nittany Lions guard Freddie Dilione V (5) defends during the second half at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Throughout the season, the Trojans' tournament seed projection has risen and fallen. Entering their road test against Ohio State, where do the Trojans fall in the latest NCAA Tournament projections?

USC Trojans NCAA Tournament Projection

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Kam Woods (13) moves with the ball as Penn State Nittany Lions guard Freddie Dilione V (5) defends during the second half at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The Trojans are projected as the No. 10 seed in ESPN's Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology. As for where USC falls in the bracket, Lunardi has the Trojans projected to play the No. 7 seed, the Utah State Aggies, in a West Region first-round matchup in Oklahoma City.

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The Aggies currently post a 21-3 overall record and are first in the Mountain West Conference. Given their light schedule, this could be a very favorable matchup for the Trojans. Last season, Utah State fell in the first round to USC's arch-rival, the UCLA Bruins, 72-47.

If the Trojans advance, they'll play the winner of the matchup between the No. 2 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers and the No. 15 seed Merrimack Warriors. Other top seeds projected to be in the West Region include the Arizona Wildcats (No. 1), Florida Gators (No. 3), and Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 4).

Potential Rematch in NCAA Tournament For USC Trojans

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) moves with the ball as Penn State Nittany Lions guard Freddie Dilione V (5) defends during the first half at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

If USC were to play Nebraska in the second round, it would be a tournament rematch from the regular season. The Trojans are scheduled to play the No. 7-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers at the Galen Center on Feb. 28. Depending on how that matchup plays out on Feb. 28, the Trojans could very well be in a great position to upset the Cornhuskers in the tournament and make a run to the Sweet 16, USC's first since 2021.

Musselman is no stranger to taking teams on a tournament run in his second season. In 2021, Musselman guided the Arkansas Razorbacks to the Elite 8 in his second season, where they fell to the eventual national champions, the Baylor Bears. USC fans are hoping that if the Trojans earn a spot in the tournament, Musselman can provide the team with the spark to make a run.

As for now, though, Musselman's USC group will focus on strengthening its tournament resume with a win over Ohio State. The Buckeyes are another tournament hopeful, currently with a 15-8 overall record and are 7-6 in the Big Ten. The tip-off between the Trojans and Buckeyes at Value City Arena is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. PT.