Lincoln Riley’s Harsh Reality After USC’s National Signing Day

National Signing Day was supposed to feel like a turning point at USC. Instead, it may have quietly raised the stakes higher than ever for head coach Lincoln Riley.

The Trojans officially inked the No. 1-ranked 2026 recruiting class, a massive haul of 35 signees headlined by five-star linebacker Luke Wafle, five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pope, and newly elevated five-star defensive tackle Jaimeon Winfield. It was the largest class among any top-20 program outside of the North Carolina Tar Heels, which signed 40 players but failed to land a single five-star recruit.

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley 2026 recruiting class National Signing Day Big Ten Football College Football Playoff NIL — Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

On the surface, it was a celebration of ambition, reach, and flexing the Trojans' financial muscle. In practice, it underscored a far harsher reality: in modern college football, elite recruiting no longer buys patience.

When Talent Doesn’t Equal Time

In a previous era, a youth-heavy class symbolized long-term development. Today, that model has eroded under the weight of NIL and the transfer portal. Players can leave after one season. Rosters churn annually. Coaches are often forced to maximize immediate production because continuity is no longer guaranteed.

USC has already lived that reality. Former five-star quarterback Husan Longstreet, a California native who spent his freshman year backing up Jayden Maiava, entered the transfer portal and landed at LSU, despite the Tigers already bringing in Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt to start. It was a reminder that even elite recruits with unclear paths elsewhere can still walk.

That volatility places Riley in a bind. Recruiting wins headlines. Retention and results determine job security.

Spending Without Postseason Returns

Among the programs that finished with top-10 recruiting classes in 2026, six reached the College Football Playoff. USC did not.

The Trojans were also singled out financially. In a survey of 13 Power Four general managers and staffers conducted by On3, 12 identified USC as the highest-spending program in the 2026 cycle. The top five is rounded out by the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Miami Hurricanes, Oregon Ducks and Texas A&M Aggies. Of that group of the biggest spenders of the 2026 recruiting cycles, the Trojans are the only team that did not make the College Football Playoff.

Whether it is based on ranking or dollars invested, the Trojans amongst the elite without the production to back it up. Leaving many to question whether coach Riley will be around long enough to reap the fruits of his labor.

“They’re doing something because they spent a lot of fucking money,” a Big 12 general manager told On3. “They got a good class. But is Lincoln [Riley] going to be the one to see them grow up? Or is it going to be like Jimbo Fisher?”

That comparison cuts deep. Fisher’s tenure as the head coach at Texas A&M serves as a cautionary tale. One year after signing the No. 1 recruiting class in 2022, Fisher was fired. Despite early success, 26 wins in his first three seasons and a No. 4 ranked finish in 2020, the Aggies collapsed to 19-15 over the next three years.

"There was something just not clicking to provide confidence for everyone in the program," Texas A&M athletic director Ross Bjork said back in 2023 after firing Fisher. "You have to adapt, you have to evolve. I'm not going to say whether he did or didn't, but it didn't work."

Fisher finished 45-25 without an SEC title game appearance. Elite recruiting never translated into elite outcomes. A fate that could soon cost Riley next.

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Why Riley’s Margin Is Thinner Than Ever

Riley’s resume at USC is solid, but increasingly hollow by elite standards. He is 53-35 in four seasons, has reached a bowl game every year, but owns zero College Football Playoff appearances and no Big Ten title game berths. With a tougher Big Ten schedule looming and one of the youngest rosters among national contenders, progress alone may not be enough.

Some point to Riley’s reported $11 million salary as protection. In reality, it may only amplify scrutiny. He is among the five highest-paid coaches in the sport and aside from newly hired LSU coach Lane Kiffin, the only one in that tier without a national championship.

In an era defined by return on investment, recruiting dominance without postseason results is no longer aspirational. It is a liability. USC’s No. 1 class will win press conferences and offseason optimism.

But if Riley cannot turn talent into tangible success quickly, that same class could become the clearest marker of expectations unmet and a reminder that in today’s college football economy, even elite recruiters are replaceable.