Two Games That Could Put USC Coach Lincoln Riley on the Hot Seat

College football analyst Josh Pate believes that the USC Trojans cannot afford another 9-3 season and that two potential losses will put Lincoln Riley on the hot seat.

Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Texas A&M Aggies in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The 2026 college football season is shaping up to be an important stepping stone for the Trojans’ future. As they enter their third season in the Big Ten, they’re coming with the most returners in the conference and the No. 1 overall recruiting class of 2026. Despite these advantages, Lincoln Riley’s run at Southern Cal remains the center of conversation. 

Throughout the spring and pre-season analysis, Riley has fallen in national coach rankings while the team ranks low in conference projections. Now the nine-year head coach has found himself in early hot seat conversations if the Trojans fail to make a College Football Playoff berth.

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley on the sidelines during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

According to college football analyst Josh Pate, USC fans, the administration and Riley himself “understand” the importance of the upcoming season.

“It is this: you’re a high-level, that's why we hired you. We’re a high-level program, that's why you wanted to come here. We are six years in and we have no playoff appearances,” Pate said about Riley during a segment on his show. “And at a place like USC, the sixth year is well past the line in the sand, past which you can't be selling people on promise, and hope, and future and optimism. You gotta have results.”

Pate admitted that the Trojans have a difficult schedule in the latter half of the season, but that a 9-3 record along with losses to these two teams could taint Riley’s legacy at Southern Cal.

Oregon at USC: Sept. 26

Nov 22, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning greet each other after the game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Since becoming USC’s head coach, Riley has an 0-2 record versus Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks. The first loss took place on Nov. 11, 2023 when the Ducks hosted the Trojans for the first time since 2015. Despite USC’s fourth quarter rally, Oregon came away with a 36-27 victory.

Riley’s second loss to Oregon took place last season on the road, in their first meeting as Big Ten opponents (Nov. 22, 2025). The Trojans were coming into the matchup off a three-game win streak and nationally ranked – No. 15 at the time. The Ducks ended up routing USC 42-27, putting up a total of 436 yards. 

It also doesn't help that Lanning has done what Riley has yet to do: four-straight double-digit win seasons, a Big Ten title, two College Football Playoff appearances (2-2) along with a No. 1 seed.

Key advantages to this year’s game is that USC will be at home versus Oregon for the first time since 2020, and it will be their second conference game of the season. It's more than likely that both squads enter the game undefeated, along with a national rank, but a loss for USC would be less detrimental compared to last year. While not a welcomed mindset, an early loss is more forgiving in the 12-seed playoffs. Or it can be a tone-setting win for the Trojans that will put the conference on notice.

Ohio State at USC: Oct. 31

Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Jerome Baker (17) hangs on as USC Trojans wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (6) tries to strip the ball from Baker after he recovered a fumble during the second quarter of the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the USC Trojans on Friday, December 29, 2017 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. [Joshua A. Bickel/Dispatch] | Joshua A. Bickel/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

This will be the Trojans’ first meeting with the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten. The last time these two programs played each other was in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 29, 2017 – the Buckeyes won 24-7. In total, USC leads 13-10 in their history with OSU.

As for Riley, this will be his second time facing OSU. The first meeting was when he was the head coach of Oklahoma and the Sooners won 31–16 in Columbus (Sept. 9, 2017). It was a notable win for Riley's career as it was his first season at the helm of Oklahoma, and it was top-10 matchup.

There are a few obstacles heading into this matchup. The first being back-to-back road games featuring Penn State and Wisconsin. While Wisconsin is in the rebuilding stages under Luke Fickell, Penn State has brought over starting talent from Iowa State due to new head coach Matt Campbell. Although the Nittany Lions finished last season with a record of 7-6, there's a chance they can disrupt USC’s conference run the way Illinois did last season. 

Whether the Trojans enter the game 2-0 or 1-1 on the road, being at home against OSU should be a big plus for them.

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