USC's Chances Of Getting Into the Playoff If Trojans Beat Oregon

The No. 15 USC Trojans' chances at reaching the College Football Playoff are on the line against the No. 7 Oregon Ducks on Saturday in Eugene. If the Trojans beat the Ducks, what are their chances of getting into the postseason?

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The No. 15 USC Trojans will face their biggest challenge of the season against the No. 7 Oregon Ducks on Saturday in Eugene. The Ducks are the toughest remaining team standing between USC's chances of reaching the College Football Playoff.

What Are USC's Chances Of Reaching the Playoff With Win vs. Oregon?

Nov 15, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Iowa Hawkeyes with running back Bryan Jackson (21) during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

An upset win over Oregon on Saturday at Autzen Stadium puts the Trojans in a prime position to clinch a spot in the playoff. Beating a top-10 Oregon team on the road would be massive for the Trojans' playoff resume. If USC follows an upset win over Oregon with a home victory over their arch-rival, the UCLA Bruins, it'll be tough for the committee to keep the Trojans out as one of the best 10-2 teams.

The biggest challenge for USC, however, is the other potential two-loss teams that the committee will consider while deciding on who to leave out of the 12-team playoff bracket. The current two-loss teams that rank ahead of the Trojans include No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 10 Alabama, No. 12 Utah, No. 13 Miami, and No. 14 Vanderbilt. The No. 11 BYU Cougars are a loss team that could also earn a spot in the playoff if they win out.

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Notre Dame defeated USC 34-24 on Oct. 18 in South Bend, and the committee will likely rank the Fighting Irish ahead of the Trojans, if both teams win out and finish the season at 10-2. Miami will also secure a spot in the playoff if it wins out, which would include a victory in the ACC Championship.

Notre Dame cornerback Christian Gray (6) celebrates after intercepting a pass in the second half of a NCAA football game against Southern California at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 16 Georgia Tech, ranked just below USC, is a team the Trojans will need to look out for if they win the ACC Championship. A two-loss ACC Champion and Notre Dame are both expected to earn spots over USC.

Why USC May Need Help Even With a Win

Nov 15, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans running back Bryan Jackson (21) runs the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Trojans will likely need a loss from four out of the five remaining SEC and Big 12 teams that are ranked ahead of them to earn the final spot in the 12-team field. Even if the Trojans beat the Ducks on Saturday, it may be hard for the Trojans to earn a place over a two-loss SEC team, like Oklahoma and Alabama.

The committee would likely give the Trojans a spot over Utah, given their record against top 25 teams, meaning that USC needs Oklahoma, Alabama, BYU, and Vanderbilt to lose one of their remaining two games.

USC currently has a 1-2 record against current CFP top-25 teams, which would improve to 2-2 with a win over the Ducks on Saturday. No. 18 Michigan will likely still be ranked as long as the Wolverines finish with a 9-3 or 10-2 record. Even if Michigan pulls off the upset over Ohio State on Nov. 29, the Trojans have the head-to-head win over the Wolverines, winning 31-13 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Oct. 11.