USC’s College Football Playoff Chances Will Rise or Fall With Jayden Maiava

The USC Trojans still control their destiny in the College Football Playoff, but only if USC quarterback Jayden Maiava leads them there. After a midseason dip and rising turnovers, USC now needs its star quarterback to steady the offense and lead a strong finish.

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up prior to the game against the Georgia Southern Eagles at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The No. 17 USC Trojans need quarterback Jayden Maiava to play his best football of the season—and they need it now. ESPN’s latest ranking of every Power 4 quarterback placed the Trojans’ starter at No. 5 after two months, a slight drop from his No. 1 spot just a few weeks ago.

The decline isn’t dramatic, but it is a sign that Maiava has entered the most scrutinized stretch of his USC career as the Trojans enter a must-win November.

A Strong Season That Hit a Midseason Speed Bump

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Maiava’s statistical profile still ranks among the nation’s best. Through four games, he posted a 93.4 QBR, 1,587 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 15 total touchdowns. After eight games, those numbers climbed to a 90.7 QBR, 2,614 passing yards, 175 rushing yards, and 23 total touchdowns. His second month included 1,027 passing yards, 95 rushing yards, and seven additional scores. The efficiency dip was minimal. But the turnovers changed the conversation.

After opening the season with four turnover-free performances, Maiava has thrown interceptions in five straight games—including two costly interceptions during USC’s 34–24 loss to the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Those giveaways, more than anything, have fueled his drop in ESPN’s rankings and allowed Big Ten rivals Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin to surge past him.

MORE: Weather Concerns Mount For USC's Game vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

MORE: Why USC's Success Has Major Impact On Record Crowd vs. Nebraska Volleyball

MORE: Why USC Trojans Could Be On Upset Alert Against Iowa

The Home Stretch Will Decide Everything

Nov 1, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up before the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Despite the turnover spike, Maiava remains undeniably elite. He ranks 11th nationally in passing yards, fourth in yards per completion (9.7), and ninth in passer rating (164.2). His completion percentage has jumped from 59.8 percent in 2024 to 68.1 percent this season. He is reading the field faster, throwing in rhythm, and operating Lincoln Riley’s offense with command.

But USC’s margin for error is gone. The No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes allow just 146.7 passing yards per game and have surrendered only four passing touchdowns all season. The No. 8 Oregon Ducks are even stingier, giving up 126.1 passing yards per game and only five passing touchdowns. Both units rank top-10 in passing defense. Both will challenge Maiava’s decision-making, timing, and discipline.

These are the types of games where elite quarterbacks separate themselves. And they’re the games that determine which teams stay in the College Football Playoff conversation once November hits.

Everything USC Wants Still Runs Through Maiava

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up prior to the game against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The good news? USC still controls its fate. Maiava doesn’t need to be perfect—he just needs to return to the version of himself that opened the season with surgical accuracy and mistake-free football. USC’s offense remains No. 1 in SP+, and the Trojans are still a top-10 scoring team. The structure is in place for a late-season surge. Now the quarterback must rise to meet the moment.

If Maiava steadies the turnovers and leans into his strengths—quick throws, rhythm passing, and calculated aggression—USC will remain firmly in the Playoff race. But if the giveaways continue, the Trojans risk watching November opportunities slip away.