Why USC Trojans Could Be On Upset Alert Against Iowa

The No. 17 USC Trojans will play the No. 21 Iowa State Hawkeyes on Nov. 15. Though Iowa is coming off a loss, the Hawkeyes have a chance to pull off the upset, potentially knocking the Trojans out of College Football Playoff contention.

Jul 24, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The No. 17 USC Trojans are 7-2 and working towards a College Football Playoff bid. The Trojans have three games remaining, and it will be critical for USC to win out to make the playoff. USC coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans will next face the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes on Nov. 15.

There was speculation on whether Iowa would fall out of the rankings after a loss to the Oregon Ducks, but the Hawkeyes remain ranked heading into the game against USC. Though the Trojans are ranked higher, CBS Sports’ Randy Cross believes the Hawkeyes will defeat USC, potentially ending the program’s playoff hopes.

Sep 13, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz enters Kinnick Stadium before the game against the Massachusetts Minutemen. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Cross identified USC’s defensive struggles as being what will lead to the Trojans’ downfall in their push to make the CFP.

“You talk about defenses, SC’s defense is the one that would concern me the most in this matchup. They’re twelfth in the Big Ten, have not been awfully special. They’re playing a bunch of bullies in this game that love to produce turnovers,” Cross said. “I think Iowa wins this game and takes SC out of the top.”

During the discussion, CBSSports’ Aaron Taylor agreed with Cross, singling out the teams that Iowa has lost to. The Hawkeyes' losses have been against the No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers, No. 8 Oregon Ducks, and the Iowa State Cyclones. Two of the three losses have not just been against ranked opponents, but teams in the top 10.

Sep 2, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Nevada Wolf Pack in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Hawkeyes kept the game against Oregon close, scoring a touchdown to take the lead in the final two minutes against the Ducks. While Oregon won, it was a tight matchup, proving the Hawkeyes are a tough opponent.

“I like Iowa in this game as well. You consider who they lost to in Indiana and Oregon by a combined eight points. Absolutely strangled those offenses that were built with speed,” Taylor said. “USC can run the football. We know what they’ve been able to do the last couple weeks, so that’s a strength there. The question becomes, can Iowa run against that very susceptible USC rush defense on the road? I believe that answers yes.”

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USC’s Defensive Struggles Can Hurt Playoff Hopes

Sep 7, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn reacts against the Utah State Aggies during the fourth quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images | Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans have a talented team and one of the top offenses, but their issue is notably on the defensive side of the ball. The Trojans' defense has had a hard time stopping the run this season, letting up big plays that have cost the team two losses.

Whether it be against Iowa or the following week against the No. 8 Oregon Ducks, if the Trojans cannot stop physical teams and finish tackles, USC could be at risk of falling out of the CFP race.

In USC’s loss against the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Trojans could not stop running back Jeremiyah Love. Love rushed for 228 yards and one touchdown against the Trojans. He also had 37 receiving yards.

The Hawkeyes' leading rusher is running back Kamari Moulton, who has 522 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season. Quarterback Mark Gronowski will also utilize his legs, taking the ball himself for 338 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. If the Trojans cannot stop Moulton and Gronowski, the Hawkeyes can pull off an upset on the road.

With Iowa’s physicality, the USC Trojans' defense must step up to keep their playoff hopes alive for at least one more week.

USC’s Offense To Face Tough Test

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) drops back to throw the ball in the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans have a talented offense, but will face one of their toughest tests against the Hawkeyes' defense. The Hawkeyes lost by just two points against Oregon, which has one of the most explosive offenses. Iowa lost to Indiana, 20-15, just a five-point difference.

The Trojans' offense has a chance to show just how explosive they are against the Hawkeyes. USC’s offense is averaging 200.2 rushing yards per game and 303.0 passing yards. The Hawkeyes’ defense ranks No. 3 in the Big Ten for yards allowed per game, with 250.

The Trojans played well in the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats on both sides of the ball. Keeping up the rhythm against the Hawkeyes will be critical. Fortunately for USC, they will be the home team and have an extra day of rest after last playing on Friday night.

USC quarterback Jadyen Maiava and the offense will have to gain momentum early against Iowa’s defense to avoid a loss, which could not them out of playoff contention. A win against Iowa would keep USC in the conversation to make the CFP ahead of a big game against Oregon.

The No. 19 USC Trojans and the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes will kick off on Saturday, Nov. 15, at 12:30 p.m. PT at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum.