Why the USC Trojans are Primed to Shut Down Iowa’s Upset Hopes

Coming off a 31–17 win over the Northwestern Wildcats, the USC Trojans look to extend their momentum as the Iowa Hawkeyes arrive reeling from a close loss to the Oregon Ducks. With USC’s defense surging and the run game improving, the Trojans appear well positioned to avoid the upset.

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley looks on during the second half at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Fresh off a decisive 31–17 home win over the Northwestern, the No. 17 USC Trojans enter week 11 with momentum and purpose. Now 7–2 overall and 5–1 in Big Ten play, USC has responded well since its loss to the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish — leaning on a tightening defense, improved physicality, and a steady run game to regain control of its season.

With the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes coming to Los Angeles after an 18–16 loss to the No. 8 Oregon Ducks, USC faces a pivotal Homecoming matchup that could solidify its standing in both the Big Ten title race and the College Football Playoff picture.

USC Rising While Iowa Reels

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (wearing white visor) celebrates along with defensive end coach Shaun Nua after kicker Ryon Sayeri (48) hit a 54-yard field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Iowa enters at 6–3 (4–2 Big Ten), still ranked but trending downward after narrow defeats to Indiana and Oregon by a combined eight points. The Hawkeyes continue to lean heavily on their defense, while their offense has struggled to generate meaningful scoring against top-tier competition.

Meanwhile, USC owns two of the most impressive wins in the conference — taking down the Michigan Wolverines and Nebraska Cornhuskers — and has now won two straight behind its most consistent defensive performances of the season. Though quarterback Jayden Maiava hasn’t been at his sharpest, USC’s complementary football has taken a noticeable step forward.

National Analysts Pick Iowa — But USC’s Case Is Stronger

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans running back King Miller (30) runs the ball while Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Tae Johnson (9) defends in the second half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

On CBS Sports’ College Football show, analysts Randy Cross and Aaron Taylor predicted Iowa would pull the upset.

“I think Iowa wins this game, and takes USC out of the [CFP] talk,” Cross said.

Cross’s take wasn’t the only one. Taylor expanded on the matchup, pointing directly to USC’s recent improvement on the ground — and where he believes the real hinge point lies.

“USC can run the football, we know what they've been able to do the last couple of weeks, so that's a strength there... the question becomes, ‘Can Iowa run against that very susceptible USC rush defense?’ On the road, I believe that answer is yes.”

Their argument centers on Iowa’s physicality and USC’s earlier struggles against the run. But it overlooks the Trojans’ defensive surge — and Iowa’s limited offensive ceiling.

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USC’s last two performances have quietly reshaped expectations heading into Saturday:

- Defense heating up: Just 17 points allowed to both the Nebraska and Northwestern.
- Home-field advantage: USC is undefeated at the Coliseum this season.

- Steady run game: Even with injuries, USC has found reliable ground production. Freshman King Miller is averaging 121 yards rushing per game over the last four contests.
- Iowa’s offensive ceiling: The Hawkeyes have failed to reach 21 points in five of their last six games.

Oddsmakers at DraftKings still list USC as a 6.5-point favorite, a reflection of the Trojans’ emerging balance despite national skepticism.

A Critical Moment for the Trojans’ Postseason Path

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

This game isn’t about Iowa reclaiming momentum — it’s about USC proving it belongs in the Playoff conversation entering the final stretch. A win keeps the Trojans alive in every major race. A loss closes the door immediately.

With a defense playing its best football of the season, an offense finding rhythm again, and a Homecoming crowd ready to tilt the field, USC enters this matchup with far more stability — and far more upside — than the national predictions suggest.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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