What the Advanced Analytics Say About USC vs. Michigan

The USC Trojans are hosting the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, Oct. 11. It will be prime 4:30 p.m. PT kickoff on NBC for this Big Ten showdown between two iconic programs.

Will USC be able to avenge their defeat in Ann Arbor from last season?

USC vs. Michigan Preview, FPI Prediction

USC Trojans Michigan Wolverines FPI Prediction Betting Odds Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Lincoln Riley Big Ten Jayden Maiava — Michigan coach Sherrone Moore leaves the field after a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Michigan Wolverines at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025. Oklahoma won 24-13. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Trojans a 68.5 percent chance to knock off the visiting Wolverines.

USC is fresh off a bye week following their last second 34-32 loss to the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Trojans now find themselves with a 4-1 record and 2-1 in Big Ten conference play. USC’s offense has been electric with quarterback Jayden Maiava, running back Waymond Jordan, and wide receiver Makai Lemon. They are averaging 48.4 points per game.

Michigan on the other hand beat the Wisconsin Badgers last week 24-10 to improve their record to 4-1. The Wolverines remain unbeaten in Big Ten play with a mark of 2-0. Their lone loss was on the road against the Oklahoma Sooners.

The Wolverines are led by a strong defense, run game, and freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. Underwood was rated as the top recruit in the 2025 class and has shown promise so far this season. However, Michigan is still a run first team with running back Justice Haynes. Haynes has rushed for over 100 yards in all five of their games this season.

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USC vs. Michigan Betting Odds

USC is a 2.5 point home favorite over Michigan according to DraftKings Sportsbook. They have odds of -135 to win outright while Michigan is +114.

The current over/under is at 57.5 points.

USC vs. Michigan Score Prediction

USC had a full week to think about their heartbreaking loss to Illinois. The Trojans were outplayed for most of the game but found themselves ahead in the final moments after a go-ahead touchdown pass from Maiava to Lemon. Illinois promptly marched down the field and kicked a game winning field goal as time expired.

It seems every game USC loses under Lincoln Riley is a one that comes right down to the wire. That was the case against Michigan last year. The Trojans went on the road to Ann Arbor and found themselves with a lead late in the game before the Michigan run game took over to give the Wolverines a big home win.

For USC to win this time, they must make the freshman quarterback be the one to do so. They have to sell out on the run and make Underwood throw. If they do this, they should be able to get it done. Trojans win a close game at the end on a field goal and cover.

USC 24, Michigan 21

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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