Why the USC Trojans Are Big Losers Of Schedule Release

The USC Trojans 2026 Big Ten schedule is front-loaded with high-stakes matchups and limited late-season flexibility, leaving the Trojans with little margin for error in the College Football Playoff race.

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley before an NCAA football game with the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans didn’t just get a challenging 2026 schedule, they got a strategically unforgiving one. While every Big Ten contender faces landmines, USC’s path is uniquely front-loaded, emotionally taxing, and structurally limiting when it comes to playoff margin for error.

What makes USC a true loser of the schedule release isn’t one game, but a sequence of timing quirks and structural disadvantages that quietly stack the deck against them in three distinct ways. By the time November arrives, the Trojans may already know exactly who they are and who they aren’t.

Early Collision With the Team That Ended USC’s Season

Nov 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talk before a game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

One of USC’s earliest home tests comes against Oregon Ducks on September 26, marking the programs’ earliest meeting since 2005. The timing matters. So does the memory.

Last season’s loss in Eugene didn’t just sting, it ended USC’s Big Ten title hopes and erased any College Football Playoff path. Oregon’s 42-27 win was decisive, even if the final score suggested otherwise. Late touchdowns from star wide receiver Makai Lemon and tight end Lake McRee briefly narrowed the gap down the stretch, but the Ducks controlled the game throughout.

That context makes the rematch tricky. USC will be chasing revenge without two of its most reliable red-zone weapons, both now preparing for the NFL. An early emotional peak game against a roster built to contend again creates immediate pressure to be fully formed by late September.

Back-to-Back Games Against the Last Two National Champions

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks on his headset in the third quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

After a bye and a road trip to Wisconsin Badgers, USC enters the most punishing stretch of its season. Wisconsin looks manageable on paper, but it has all the markers of a trap game. Illinois proved last year how dangerous a single lapse can be, handing USC its first loss on a last-second field goal. The real problem comes next.

USC faces Ohio State Buckeyes at the Coliseum in late October, followed immediately by a trip to Bloomington to play Indiana Hoosiers. Those are the two most recent national champions and both have motivation.

Ohio State enters looking to reassert itself after a disappointing 2025 playoff exit, falling to the eventual national champion runner-ups, the Miami Hurricanes. The Buckeyes return star quarterback Julian Sayin and elite receiver Jeremiah Smith, a combination that stresses even elite secondaries. Smith in particular may have some grievances to air against the Trojans after Lemon overtook him for the Biletnikoff Award.

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Indiana, meanwhile, will be defending its crown after losing significant talent, including Heisman trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. The Hoosiers didn’t stand pat. They aggressively retooled through the portal, headlined by adding veteran quarterback Josh Hoover from TCU and dynamic wide receiver Nick Marsh from Michigan State.

Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti has also been the poster child for critics of Lincoln Riley, highlighting all the things that Cignetti has been able to accomplish in the Big Ten in less time than Riley. That game will be more than just a pseudo playoff game. It will also be a litmus test for where Riley ranks amongst the top coaches in the conference.

One program is chasing redemption. The other is guarding history. USC gets them back-to-back and both games could act as "season enders" if the Trojans lose and are uncompetitive.

A Thin November Safety Net at Home

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The back half of the schedule offers little relief. After a front-loaded home slate, USC plays just one home game in November, a matchup with Maryland Terrapins at the Coliseum.

Maryland struggled mightily last season, losing eight straight after a promising start. While the Terrapins’ freshman quarterback Malik Washington showed flashes, inconsistency defined their offense. Barring a dramatic leap, this game lacks the weight of USC’s late-season showdowns from previous years.

That matters for playoff math. With road games against Indiana and UCLA surrounding it, USC won’t have a late marquee home stage to repair damage. If the Trojans stumble in October, November won’t save them.

USC doesn’t just need to be good in 2026, it needs to be sharp early, resilient late, and nearly mistake-free in between. The schedule demands for their talented 2026 freshman class to grow up quickly, their returners to develop quickly and their newcomers to catch on fast from Week 4 onward. In a new Big Ten reality, that margin may be the difference between relevance and regret. And for Lincoln Riley, it could be the stretch both defines his tenure with the Trojans and possibly ends it.