Virginia Basketball Continues To Trend Up In The Latest Bracketology Release

Virginia has won five straight games and continues to move up in the rankings

Jan 17, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Malik Thomas (1) looks to move the ball past SMU Mustangs guard Boopie Miller (2) during the second half at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Virginia Basketball continues to play well and they are still managing to fly under the radar. The Cavaliers stand at 16-2 and have won five straight games since losing their ACC opener to Virginia Tech, with the last two wins coming against good ACC squads such as Louisville and SMU on the road.

Virginia has been steadily climbing this season when it comes to bracket projections, and the latest projection from ESPN's Joe Lunardi is the best one yet for UVA. Lunardi has moved the Cavaliers up to a No. 4 seed (No. 16 overall) in the West Region where they would face No. 13 seed Florida Atlantic. They are in the same bracket as projected No. 1 seed Arizona.

Big tests ahead

Jan 17, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; The Virginia Cavaliers bench celebrates as forward Thijs de Ridder (28) is fouled during the second half against the SMU Mustangs at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Virginia has been playing a tough stretch to open ACC and that continues on Saturday with a home game against North Carolina. After the victory aginst SMU on Saturday, UVA head coach Ryan Odom reflected on the road victories that his team has gotten to start the season:

“I mean, it's huge, you know, to win on the road. Every win on the road is like gold and this particular group understands that if you want to compete at the highest level of the ACC and compete, you know, for a championship, you have to win games on the road. The eventual champion will do that. know we're not playing, you know, a ton of teams twice and you have one shot at a lot, you know, the majority of the teams that you're going to play, whether it's at home or on the road. So you just want to put your best forward best foot forward in each of those opportunities. Then you learn from it. Whether you win or you lose, you go home and figure out, okay, where are the areas, what are the things that we need to tweak a little bit to continue to improve ,because that's the most important thing. We've got to get better over the course of the season.” 

The SMU game was tight for the majority of the afternoon, but it showed that the Cavaliers are capable of winning that type of game.

“I think just the overall execution. I thought our guys did a nice job. We got to the free throw line. Made our free throws, you know, when we needed to. Got the stops when we needed to. Key rebounds. I think that that's what really what it comes down to. Can you get the stop when you need it? Can you get the bucket when you need it? I thought our guys just did really well with that tonight.” 

Virginia is playing well right now and you could argue that they are the biggest threat to Duke in the ACC. A win over the Tar Heels on Saturday would continue their momentum.