Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Bubble Teams’ Chances Dwindle

Welcome to championship week! It’s perhaps the busiest week of the year in college basketball, an all-out race to lock in spots in the NCAA tournament with Selection Sunday just days away and the process of building the bracket slowly but surely beginning. Throughout the week, Sports Illustrated will have daily and in some cases even more frequent updates with all the latest in projecting the field of 68. Here’s a look at where things stand entering Tuesday.

Previous Bracket Watches: Jan. 21 | Feb. 3 | Feb. 10 | Feb. 17 | Feb. 24 | March 3 | March 6

Automatic Bids Decided Tuesday

CAA: No. 3 Hofstra vs. No. 4 Monmouth, 7 p.m. ET
Horizon League: No. 1 Wright State vs. No. 3 Detroit Mercy, 7 p.m. ET
MAAC: No. 1 Merrimack vs. No. 3 Siena, 9 p.m. ET
WCC: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Santa Clara, 9 p.m. ET

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

UCF
NC State
Missouri
Santa Clara

Last Four In

Texas
VCU
SMU
Auburn

First Four Out

Virginia Tech
Indiana
Stanford
New Mexico

Next Four Out

Cincinnati
Oklahoma
San Diego State
Seton Hall

It was a horrific weekend for bubble teams. Essentially every team on the fringes of the tournament field outside of VCU dropped games, with so many missed opportunities to strengthen cases for spots in the field.

The good news for many of those teams is their losses weren’t as damaging as they might have been otherwise. The bad news is the bubble is very likely to shrink in the coming days as the second wave of conference tournaments get underway. If Miami (Ohio) loses in the MAC tournament, that takes away one at-large spot. If Utah State loses in the Mountain West tournament, that removes another. VCU winning the Atlantic 10 tournament would clinch its bid; a third team from the A-10 emerging other than the Rams and Saint Louis would steal one more slot. And that’s not even discussing any other potential bid-steal candidates over the next week.

That’s why Auburn, in particular, should enter the weekend not feeling great despite being the last team in our projected field. It might take two wins for the Tigers to dance, and even that might not be enough given the headwind of having 16 losses on the ledger by Selection Sunday.

Tuesday’s Bubble Games to Monitor

Stanford vs. Pittsburgh, 2 p.m. ET
Cincinnati vs. Utah, 3 p.m. ET
SMU vs. Syracuse, 4:30 p.m. ET
Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest, 7 p.m. ET

SMU has collapsed of late, entering the ACC tournament losers of four straight. The Mustangs are in the projected field as of today, but a loss to Syracuse (particularly given SMU’s trend of late) might be enough to knock them out.

It’s a definite must-win game for Virginia Tech against Wake Forest with the Hokies currently on the wrong side of our projected cut line. A victory might move the needle marginally, but the real benefit is a crack at Clemson on Wednesday.

Stanford and Cincinnati each have gained late bubble steam with key wins, while others have lost around them. In spite of that, both have work to do this week for a serious shot at the Dance. Consider their games Tuesday must-wins for the opportunity to continue to build their case later in the week.

Projected Field

Bold teams have clinched their automatic bid.
* — Projected automatic qualifiers.

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 UMBC*/Bethune-Cookman*
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Portland State*
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Wright State*

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Howard*/Lehigh*
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 South Florida*
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Texas/VCU
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Missouri
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Furman

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Utah State* vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 St. John’s* vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 SMU/Auburn
No. 3 Gonzaga* vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Saint Louis*
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Merrimack*

South Region

No. 1 Florida* vs. No. 16 Queens
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Ohio State
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Hofstra*
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Santa Clara
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Key Bracket Notes

Florida took control of the final No. 1 seed after UConn’s loss at Marquette. It might be difficult for UConn to regain that spot without an early Florida loss in the SEC tournament.
Purdue losing one more time at home, this time to Wisconsin, knocks the Boilermakers down to a No. 4 seed and Wisconsin up to a No. 5. The Boilers’ analytical profile has remained stubbornly strong, but their play of late has to be concerning.
Among the biggest drops of the weekend comes from Saint Louis, which got bludgeoned by George Mason in a result that torpedoed the Billikens’ strong predictive metrics and knocked Saint Louis down to a No. 10 seed. It seems highly unlikely that Saint Louis could get left out, but one A-10 tournament win would be nice to ensure no sweating on Selection Sunday.
Automatic qualifiers are starting to fill in the field. Even with some early upsets like Belmont and UNC Wilmington going down, the mid-major pool looks strong so far. We’ll see if that holds throughout the week.