Five on five: Virginia hosts a revamped Florida State

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Few ACC programs improved as much as Florida State did in the 2025-26 season. Coach Luke Loucks, off of nearly a decade of NBA assistant roles, returned to his alma mater with NBA-style philosophies. It paid off. The Seminoles played aggressive basketball and came one shot away from beating Duke in the ACC Tournament.

Last year, No. 15 Virginia won in Tallahassee by just three points. The rematch in Charlottesville this season could be close once again — although the Cavaliers should have more of an advantage this time around in terms of a home crowd, continuity and player fit.

PG: Chance Mallory (So.) versus Anthony Robinson II (Sr.)

Mallory’s 2025-26: 0 GS, 36 GP, 24.1 MPG, 9.3 PPG, 3.4 APG, 3.7 RPG, 42.2% FG, 34.5% 3PT

Robinson’s 2025-26 (Missouri): 19 GS, 33 GP, 27.0 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 3.1 RPG, 41.0% FG, 31.4% 3PT

Mallory has a major advantage in this matchup. Robinson may be an elite defender, but his offensive metrics are inferior — and Mallory presents a unique challenge with his ankle-breaking agility and speed.

Advantage: Virginia

SG: Jurian Dixon (R-Jr.) versus Kam Taylor (Jr.)

Dixon’s 2025-26 (UC Irvine): 35 GS, 35 GP, 30.4 MPG, 15.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 3.6 RPG, 43.0% FG, 38.5% 3PT

Taylor’s 2025-26 (UNC-Asheville): 30 GS, 32 GP, 34.6 MPG, 18.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 5.0 RPG, 45.3% FG, 28.1% 3PT

In a battle between shooting guards moving to the high-major level, Dixon should have an advantage. Taylor needs the ball in his hands to produce — he is a poor three-point shooter and had little competition for playing time and possession. Taylor has also only played two Power Four opponents in his career. Even though Taylor has a higher ceiling, Dixon is the much safer bet.

Advantage: Virginia

SF: Sam Lewis (Sr.) versus Shon Abaev (So.)

Lewis’ 2025-26: 35 GS, 36 GP, 25.4 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 1.4 APG, 3.6 RPG, 45.5% FG, 40.3% 3PT

Abaev’s 2025-26 (Cincinnati): 12 GS, 24 GP, 15.9 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 1.1 APG, 2.9 RPG, 33.5% FG, 25.7% 3PT

Lewis has both the higher floor and higher ceiling here. Abaev should impress in his first season with the Seminoles, but he was an inefficient shooter as a freshman and has to improve if he is to rise to Lewis’ level.

Advantage: Virginia

PF: Thijs De Ridder (So.) versus Sebastian Rancik (Jr.)

De Ridder’s 2025-26: 36 GS, 36 GP, 27.7 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 1.6 APG, 6.2 RPG, 50.8% FG, 35.7% 3PT

Rancik’s 2025-26 (Colorado): 26 GS, 29 GP, 28.3 MPG, 12.3 PPG, 2.0 APG, 5.6 RPG, 40.4% FG, 33.1% 3PT

The addition of Rancik was a major portal win for Florida State — especially considering that several other Power Four programs were vying for his services. He could be a highly productive player for the Seminoles. However, there is no basis to consider him to be on the same level as De Ridder.

Advantage: Virginia

C: Johann Grunloh (So.) versus Marcis Ponder (Fr.)

Grunloh’s 2025-26: 36 GS, 36 GP, 21.0 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 0.6 APG, 5.2 RPG, 53.3% FG, 35.0% 3PT

Ponder could be a demon down low — he stands at seven feet tall and weighs 285 pounds. Among 2026 recruits, Ponder was ranked as the No. 4 center nationally and No. 3 player in Virginia by 247Sports. In terms of sheer size, he is nearly 50 pounds heavier than Grunloh. However, the Cavaliers center should still enter the season with the advantage of experience, versatility and vastly superior speed and scoring ability.

Advantage: Virginia

Verdict: Advantage Virginia

There are a lot of moving pieces for Loucks’ crew this year. There are some tantalizing talents, but they also have major questions in terms of three-point shooting (and defense), transition defense and shot distribution. Expect Florida State to be a middle-tier ACC squad which sits on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Ryan Odom and Virginia have the upper hand.

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