Five on five: Virginia may have a major advantage over Clemson

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One of Virginia’s intriguing road games is a visit to Clemson — the first since the 2023-24 season. The Tigers finished fifth in the ACC last season, ahead of Louisville, NC State and others. Clemson has the talent to win on any given night. However, Virginia’s personnel present several problems for the Tigers.

PG: Chance Mallory (So.) versus Zac Foster (So.)

Mallory’s 2025-26: 0 GS, 36 GP, 24.1 MPG, 9.3 PPG, 3.4 APG, 3.7 RPG, 42.2% FG, 34.5% 3PT

Foster’s 2025-26: 0 GS, 12 GP, 18.6 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 2.8 RPG, 31.0% FG, 27.7% 3PT

Foster was an ascending player for Clemson last season before he tore his ACL in December. He should be ready to go for the start of the 2026-27 season. In the matchup against Virginia, though, he will likely have an extremely difficult time containing the agile Mallory. This is a matchup that should heavily favor the Cavaliers.

Advantage: Virginia

SG: Jurian Dixon (R-Jr.) versus Cole Certa (Jr.)

Dixon’s 2025-26 (UC Irvine): 35 GS, 35 GP, 30.4 MPG, 15.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 3.6 RPG, 43.0% FG, 38.5% 3PT

Certa’s 2025-26 (Notre Dame): 16 GS, 31 GP, 26 MPG, 12.8 PPG, 0.8 APG, 1.7 RPG, 37.4% FG, 36.7% 3PT

Clemson will have options for the starting shooting guard role — but the upside-based pick would be Certa, who averaged over 16 points per game in ACC play last year. Certa lit up Virginia for 34 points in his battle with the Cavaliers last year. He should have an advantage against Ryan Odom’s defense again.

Advantage: Clemson

SF: Sam Lewis (Sr.) versus Liutauras Lelevicius (Sr.)

Lewis’ 2025-26: 35 GS, 36 GP, 25.4 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 1.4 APG, 3.6 RPG, 45.5% FG, 40.3% 3PT

Lelevicius’ 2025-26 (TCU): 22 GS, 34 GP, 23.7 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 0.7 APG, 3.4 RPG, 45.7% FG, 38.0% 3PT

An intriguing battle between reliable shooters, Lewis should have an advantage here given that he has been more consistent against elite competition. These are different players — Lelevicius is more of a rebounder and a smaller power forward — but Lewis has the higher floor and ceiling.

Advantage: Virginia

PF: Thijs De Ridder (So.) versus Chase Thompson (So.)

De Ridder’s 2025-26: 36 GS, 36 GP, 27.7 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 1.6 APG, 6.2 RPG, 50.8% FG, 35.7% 3PT

Thompson’s 2025-26: 0 GS, 35 GP, 9.0 MPG, 2.3 PPG, 0.3 APG, 1.1 RPG, 52.8% FG, 40.0% 3PT

This is the biggest mismatch in the entire matchup. De Ridder is arguably the top power forward in the ACC, while Thompson has never started a college basketball game. De Ridder will likely produce one of his better performances against Clemson.

Advantage: Virginia

C: Johann Grunloh (So.) versus Dylan Faulkner (Sr.)

Grunloh’s 2025-26: 36 GS, 36 GP, 21.0 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 0.6 APG, 5.2 RPG, 53.3% FG, 35.0% 3PT

Faulkner’s 2025-26 (Samford): 30 GS, 30 GP, 26.1 MPG, 17.2 PPG, 1.8 APG, 8.6 RPG, 61.7% FG, 0.0% 3PT

Clemson’s starting center is supposed to be Carter Welling, but he suffered a torn ACL March 7, which will likely render him unable to play against Virginia this season. In his place, the Tigers are expected to start Faulkner, a Samford transfer. Faulkner is 6-foot-9 and never played a full season of high-major competition. He could struggle immensely against the imposing Grunloh.

Advantage: Virginia

Verdict: Advantage Virginia

Coach Brad Brownell has done a remarkable job building the Clemson program — but injuries, continuity, questions about team defense and other factors are going against him. In terms of play style, this is a matchup Virginia should win by double digits and then some.

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