Could Virginia Actually Land Arch Manning? Here's Five Reasons Why It's Possible

Five reasons why the No. 1 football recruit in the class of 2023 could seriously consider picking the Cavaliers

Author:
Matt Newton
Updated:
Jun 15, 2022 11:24 PM EDT
Original:
Apr 12, 2022

Five-star quarterback Arch Manning shocked the college football recruiting world when he made a surprise visit to Virginia on Friday. The No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2023 and nephew to Peyton and Eli Manning has visited Alabama, Georgia, and Texas and holds offers from LSU, Ole Miss, and a host of other programs. The mere fact that Arch Manning visited UVA is a major recruiting victory for Tony Elliott and the Cavaliers. It is still difficult to imagine Manning seriously considering a commitment to Virginia compared to the other offers he has on the table, but there are a few reasons why it's not as much of a long shot as it seems at first.

Let's start with addressing the obvious reasons why Arch Manning would not pick Virginia.

Manning has made multiple visits to Alabama, Georgia, and Texas, the presumptive favorites to land the 6'4" quarterback. When compared to those programs, it is clear that the Virginia football program will be outgunned in terms of facilities and resources. The Cavaliers recognize that this is an area where they are... let's just say "lagging behind" other football programs. Manning would have to settle for the very early stages of the Virginia Athletics Master Plan rather than the game rooms, hot tubs, and indoor amusement parks at the top programs in college football. Similarly, it is expected that the NIL deals offered in association with programs like Alabama and Texas will be more appealing, although Virginia is working towards building a competitive NIL program through the Cavalier Futures collective and in partnership with Altius Sports Partners.

Additionally, Arch Manning's best chance at winning a national championship likely comes with a commitment to an SEC school. Alabama and Georgia have won the last two national titles and are routinely in the College Football Playoff year in and year out. When compared with these perennial powerhouses, Virginia's shortcomings are clear.

In terms of recruiting, Manning would be just one of several five-star recruits on the rosters at Alabama and Georgia. Virginia has not landed a five-star recruit since Quin Blanding and Andrew Brown in 2014 (per 247Sports). The Cavaliers did receive the commitment of the No. 1 player in the 2005 recruiting class in offensive lineman Eugene Monroe. Manning's commitment to UVA would be an extreme recruiting anomaly for a program that has signed just five four-star players in its last four recruiting classes and does not have a single four-star player in the 2022 recruiting class.

Now that we've covered the reasons why Virginia landing Arch Manning is a long shot, let's take a look at the reasons Manning could give the Cavaliers a chance.

Family Connection

Peyton Manning at Virginia's Valedictory Exercises in 2014. — Photo courtesy of UVA Media Relations

When it was first reported on Friday that Arch Manning was making this very surprising visit to Virginia, the reaction from most of the college football world was the same - why? The most informing explanation is the several family connections Arch Manning has to the school. His mother, Ellen Heidingsfelder, is a graduate of the University of Virginia, as is his aunt (Peyton Manning's wife), Ashley Thompson. Arch's older sister, May, is currently a student at UVA as well. Peyton Manning even gave a speech at Virginia's Valedictory Exercises in 2014. The UVA-Manning connection runs deep and undoubtedly played a major factor in this visit.

Tony Elliott

If Arch Manning has such a deep family connection to the University of Virginia, why didn't he make a visit to Charlottesville before now? It's not as if Manning's family connection suddenly compelled him to take an interest in UVA this week. His recruitment saga has been going on for years. Something has changed at the Virginia football program that has moved the needle for the Cavaliers from Manning's perspective. That something is Tony Elliott.

When Manning was being recruited heavily by Clemson last season, he would have been speaking frequently and building a relationship with Tony Elliott, who was the offensive coordinator and play-caller at Clemson at the time. Elliott had coached multiple decorated quarterbacks (Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence), who won national championships at the collegiate level before going on to earn starting positions in the NFL. After Elliott left Clemson for the UVA job, the Tigers quickly fell out of the running for Manning. A few months later, Tony Elliott is halfway through his first spring as Virginia's head football coach and he was able to convince the No. 1 recruit in the country to pay a visit to Charlottesville. It seems likely that the combination of Arch Manning's family connection to the school and his personal relationship with Elliott was what ultimately resulted in the visit.

Quarterback Success at Virginia

Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong vs. William & Mary — Photo courtesy of Scott Taetsch/ USA TODAY Sports

Ok, so Arch Manning visited UVA. Now, what can Virginia offer to actually get him to seriously consider the Cavaliers? For starters, Virginia has had incredible success at the quarterback position in the last several seasons. The Cavaliers have developed three-straight fantastic quarterbacks who shattered UVA program records. The first two, Kurt Benkert and Bryce Perkins, are currently on NFL rosters and Perkins won the Super Bowl with the LA Rams this season. The third, Brennan Armstrong, broke practically every quarterbacking record imaginable at Virginia and was fourth in the country in passing yards last season. Armstrong and the Cavaliers fielded the best passing offense in Power Five college football in 2021 and are primed to do so again in 2022. Virginia's recent history of quarterback development, talented receivers, and fantastic passing offense ought to be a major selling point for the Cavaliers as they recruit Arch Manning.

Manning's NFL Future is Not at Stake

Arch Manning is in a unique position for a football recruit at this point in his career. He has the freedom to choose where he wants to go to school without fear of damaging his NFL draft stock. Based on his high school tape and a few workouts with college teams, scouts are already raving about his physical measurements, arm talent, intangibles, and impressive football IQ. Essentially, he has already done enough to be a high draft selection in the NFL. Going to Virginia does not mean he would be sacrificing his NFL future by not playing at a top program better known for putting players in the NFL. By his name and his talent alone, he is likely to end up in the NFL no matter what happens in his college career.

Opportunity to Build a Program

If Arch Manning commits to a program like Alabama or Georgia, he would be joining a great team who is expected to win a national title. The spotlight would still be on him, but the risk-reward factor would not be in his favor. There would be tremendous pressure on him to succeed at leading the team to a national championship. While there is little doubt that Manning can live up to the hype, anything less than a national title would be a massive disappointment at those programs. Even winning a national championship would be an outcome that simply "meets expectations" at a school like Alabama.

That's not quite the case at UVA, as the Cavaliers have gone 11-11 in the last two seasons and just underwent a coaching change in December. At Virginia, Manning could be responsible for jumpstarting the football program at a school hungry to experience winning football. He would be a legend at UVA the second he stepped on Grounds - one could argue he already was when he visited this weekend. There is already some positive energy at UVA with the arrival of Tony Elliott and the news of Arch Manning visiting has been enough to generate even more excitement and buzz around the Virginia football program. If he leads the Cavalier football turnaround, he would become a college football legend - and he can do it at a school that is very important to his family.

With all that said, Virginia's odds of landing the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2023 recruiting class are very slim. However, the same could be said for Jackson State's chances of receiving a commitment from Travis Hunter, the No. 1 player in the class of 2022. Recruiting shockers happen.

Ultimately, Arch Manning gets to decide his own future, not the historical patterns of college football recruiting. Maybe he will decide, from a number of factors, that playing a few seasons of football at the University of Virginia is how he wants to spend his college years. Stranger things have happened.

No, UVA fans should not get their hopes up. But, we're not going to downplay the fact that Arch Manning making this visit to UVA means that Tony Elliott and the Cavaliers at least have a chance - and that alone is a major victory for Virginia football.

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